Phil Agius
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Our supercomputer may finally be happy with its Pickswise NFL Power Rankings! For the first time this season, it has left the top 4 unchanged, with the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Packers and Patriots leading the way. The Rams have replaced the Cardinals in the top 5 after their big win on Monday night, though. Oh, and I’m not sure how to break this to Lions fans, but it has put your team back in 32nd place after last week’s glorious jump to 31st.
This season, we’ve handed over control of our NFL power rankings to the Pickswise supercomputer. Our data science team has created a predictive machine learning model that makes use of a proprietary dynamic rating system. In addition to analyzing in-house derived metrics, the model also adapts to situational factors such as rest weeks, home-field advantage, and time-zone differentials.
Let’s take a look at how the computer ranks all 32 teams heading into Week 15.
1 Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
The Chiefs look to be getting stronger at a pretty good time and their defense has allowed just 9 points in 3 straight games and no more than 17 in 6 straight since their last loss against the Titans.
2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
Tampa Bay led Buffalo 24-3 at half-time, but allowed the Bills to make things more interesting than they would have liked before Tom Brady threw his 700th career TD pass to finish them off in overtime. They’re 6-0 at home now and facing the Saints there on Sunday night.
3 Green Bay Packers (10-3)
The Packers trailed the double-digit underdog Bears 27-21 at half-time on Monday before the visitors turned back into a pumpkin. They’re also 6-0 at home now, but go on the road this week to face a wobbling Ravens team.
4 New England Patriots (9-4)
The Patriots have had a week off to do their homework on beating the Colts (something they used to be pretty good at) but went into their bye feeling pretty good about how the season is shaping up.
5 Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
That was a huge win for the shorthanded Rams in Arizona. The Cardinals announced themselves this season with their road win over the Rams, but Sean McVay’s team showed they are still fighting for the NFC West in the return game. That’s worth a 4-place jump in the rankings, too.
Read Andrew Ortenberg’s verdict on what we saw on Monday Night Football
6 Arizona Cardinals (10-3)
Cheer up, Cardinals. You’re playing the Lions this week! Being 14-point favorites to go to 11-3 is not all bad.
7 Buffalo Bills (7-6)
As mentioned above, there were positives for the Bills to take from their rally against the Buccaneers, but falling to 7-6 and into the swirling pool of teams fighting for the AFC wildcard places was not one of them. Getting the Panthers at home this week is an ideal chance to arrest the slide.
8 Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
The Colts had won 4 of their last 5 before this week’s bye, but they can’t really afford to come out of it with a loss to the Patriots, and beating Bill Belichick is easier said than done.
Read our full game preview for Patriots vs Colts
9 Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
No team has retained the NFC East title since the Eagles in 2003-04 and it looks set to change hands again after Dallas put a 3-win gap between themselves and last season’s winners, Washington, with Sunday’s win. It’s just as well the Cowboys won too, as they’d have felt pretty silly when packing up the star-emblazoned sideline benches they had brought all the way from Texas otherwise.
10 Tennessee Titans (9-4)
Tennessee got the expected boost from coming out of their bye with a game against crisis club Jacksonville, duly recording their first shutout since 2000. Their late-season schedule (Steelers, 49ers, Dolphins, Texans) gives them no excuses if they lose their current 2-win lead over the Colts.
Read Jared Smith’s Back to the Futures article, analyzing the latest NFL odds
11 Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Ravens backup Tyler Huntley played pretty well after replacing Lamar Jackson in Sunday’s loss to the Browns. Cleveland should have been out of sight in the first half (and did lead 24-3) but two late TDs made it uncomfortably close for the home team (and enabled the Ravens to cover). That’s back-to-back losses for the Ravens, though, Lamar hurting and the Packers up next…
12 Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
The Chargers managed to record back-to-back wins for the first time since Week 5 by beating the Giants and they merely need to beat the Chiefs this week to have the divisional tiebreaker over them after winning the teams’ first meeting.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chiefs vs Chargers
13 San Francisco 49ers (7-6)
The 49ers were this week’s other overtime winners, grateful to have Deebo Samuel back and Jimmy G on a good day as they won in Cincinnati.
14 Seattle Seahawks (5-8)
The Seahawks remain suspiciously high in the rankings for a 5-win team that just beat the Texans. I’m starting to think the computer has relations at Microsoft.
15 Cleveland Browns (7-6)
As ever, it’s one step forward and potentially two back for the Browns, who recorded an important divisional win over the Ravens only to announce on Tuesday that they have 8 players going onto the Covid reserve list, including 4 offensive starters. On a short week, too, as they’re playing on Saturday.
16 New Orleans Saints (6-7)
As many suspected would happen, the Saints were able to snap their 5-game losing run by playing the Jets. Things should be tougher against the Super Bowl champions this week but they did beat the Buccaneers the first time they played them this season.
17 Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
The Vikings won against the Steelers last Thursday, but going from 29-0 up to a 36-28 final score was not ideal. Having an extra day to get Adam Thielen back from injury to face the Bears on Monday helps, but it still seems a long shot.
18 Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Miami returns from its late bye bidding to continue its resurgence, following 7 straight losses with 5 straight wins and the Jets up next.
19 Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
The Eagles this week join Washington in playing exclusively NFC East games for the remainder of the regular season, starting with their first meeting against the Football Team themselves.
20 Denver Broncos (7-6)
The Broncos looked pretty good in their win over the Lions, but I guess that’s easily done. They next play the Bengals, Raiders and Chargers, all teams in the wild-card scrap with them, so it’s all to play for.
21 Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
The Bengals slipped to back-to-back losses just when everyone was thinking they were getting good, so while the computer seems a little harsh on them, maybe it’s just smart.
22 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
The Steelers don’t have a losing record, but it probably feels like it after the dropped to the bottom of the AFC North. That kind of thing can happen when you have players who would rather dance than get the ball back in order to try to tie a game. I wouldn’t do that kind of thing if Mike Tomlin was my boss, for sure.
23 Washington Football Team (6-7)
Washington probably just blew their best chance to retain the NFC East crown, but they may not be the last team in the next year or two to lose a game due to Dallas’s defense, rather than their offense.
24 Las Vegas Raiders (6-7)
The Raiders did beat the Cowboys, but that’s their only win in their last 6 games and things seem to be spiraling downward. They could be in luck on Saturday, though, depending on how many players the Browns are able to get on the field.
25 Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
The Falcons are not out of it yet after beating the Panthers and they have a Christmas gift to look forward to when they play the Lions in Week 16. Before that, though, there’s a trip to face the 49ers and their old pal, Kyle Shanahan.
26 New York Giants (4-9)
The Giants failed to show up for their game against the Chargers and it could be the same story against the Cowboys with Daniel Jones still not cleared to return.
27 Chicago Bears (4-8)
The Bears made a great start against the Packers and if they can at least stay close against the Vikings on Monday night, Minnesota will surely find ways to try to hand the game to them. Whether they can take it is another question.
28 Carolina Panthers (5-8)
That 3-0 start must feel like a really long time ago for Panthers fans. They’re 2-5 at home now after losing to the Falcons and they finish with Bills-Buccaneers-Saints-Buccaneers. That’s not good.
29 Houston Texans (2-11)
There’s still a huge gap between 28th in the rankings and the computer’s group of tragic failures in the bottom 4. Someone’s going to get a big W this week, though, as the Texans are visiting the Jaguars.
30 New York Jets (3-9)
The Jets are seeing one of their 2022 first-round draft picks drop down the list a little as the Seahawks rally, but their own selection still looks sure to be pretty high. Their Christmas week clash with the Jaguars could be must-see TV for all the wrong reasons.
31 Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
And here they are, the franchise whose mission statement appears to be to make all others look functional in comparison. If Urban Meyer is really going to fire whoever has been leaking the tales of disharmony to the media, don’t be surprised to see Trevor Lawrence spilling everything he knows. Worth a shot.
32 Detroit Lions (1-11-1)
Detroit may well be the first NFL team to have four ones in their record. I know it was a spoiler to say the Lions were back to 32nd in the intro, but it at least meant their fans did not have to scroll down hoping for a better placing. They deserve a break.
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