Joe Champion
Augusta National’s intricacies and undulations are ultra familiar, but the par-72 that has an unchanged yardage of 7,555 yards for this year’s Masters, still has the capacity to surprise, for all that last year’s winner was anything but a shock. It’s often repeated that the Masters doesn’t start until the back 9 on Sunday, but Scottie Scheffler made birdies at 8, 9 and 10 on Sunday last year — effectively closing the door on his green-jacket rivals.
Sent off as a +450 shot last season, Scheffler — who was also successful in the 2022 Masters — will tee it up in a bid to achieve something which nobody has managed since Tiger Woods in 2002: a successful defense of his Augusta crown. Defending any tournament is difficult, but the Masters brings with it added pressure and — ever since Nicklaus doubled up in the 1966 edition — only Nick Faldo (1989 and 1990) and the aforementioned Woods have won 2 Augusta titles in a row.
Scheffler wet into last year’s Masters in magnificent form, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship and finishing runner-up in the Houston Open. This year he is winless, but he came closest of all last time out when a fast-finishing second at Memorial Park once again.
After claiming nine titles in 2024 and producing ball-striking numbers on a level akin to peak Woods, it was no surprise to see Scheffler regress slightly this year — not helped by the hand injury that forced him to make a late start to the campaign.
Make no mistake, he’s still a huge threat this week. So, too, is Rory McIlroy, who will bid to complete the career Grand Slam for the 11th time and should be full of confidence after wins at Pebble Beach and the Players Championship. McIlroy is the form man coming into the Masters, but whereas Scheffler will keep calm if he makes a slow start, there is still a sense that the Northern Irishman could unravel if things don’t immediately go to plan. He wants it so much — probably too much.
Here are my picks to win.
Collin Morikawa (+1800)
The top 2 could easily fight it out on Sunday and we’re due a battle for the ages down the closing stretch. It will come as a huge surprise if neither is in with some sort of chance when Sunday’s final round begins, but there is better each-way value to be had elsewhere, starting with Collin Morikawa.
The 28-year-old Californian hasn’t won nearly as many titles as he should have since his breakthrough in the Barracuda Championship in 2019 and his most recent US victory came in February 2021, but he is a 2-time major champion who has found top gear with his irons this season.
Morikawa, a winner of the 2020 PGA Championship and then the British Open the following year, looked destined for more Majors. His level dropped slightly following those wins, but he leads the PGA Tour this year in both strokes-gained tee-to-green and on approach.
For all that Augusta’s length hands the advantage to bigger hitters, approach play is the primary route to success and that will encourage Morikawa, who dazzled with his irons when an unlucky runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, then again when tenth at the Players. Both of those performances were career-bests in those tournaments and this week he will return to a venue where he has finished 18th, fifth, 10th and third in 4 appearances in April having placed 44th in 2020’s November Masters, when softer conditions didn’t suit him.
Justin Thomas (+2500)
Justin Thomas has long looked like a Masters champion in waiting. His blend of approach play and touch around the greens is ideal for Augusta National. He must rebuild Augusta confidence following missed cuts in 2023 and 2024 but the Kentucky man had previously made the weekend in his first seven Masters starts, finishing fourth in 2020 and eighth behind Scheffler in 2022. This year he has been striking the ball superbly and the putter — which has occasionally been a significant weakness — is back to something like its best.
Like Morikawa, Thomas has struggled to get over the winning line, finishing second at the American Express, sixth in Phoenix and ninth at the Genesis Invitational before another runner-up finish at the Valspar, where he had his pocket picked by an inspired Viktor Hovland.
Russell Henley (+5500)
The man who beat Morikawa at Bay Hill could also have a say in the battle for the green jacket. Russell Henley was a fortunate winner of the Arnold Palmer, chipping in for an eagle on the par-five 16th, but that performance was the culmination of a hugely consistent run which featured top-ten finishes at the Sony Open, Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Cognizant Classic. A Georgia man who is well versed in the vagaries of Augusta National, he has finished no worse than 31st in his last 7 Masters starts and was fourth as recently as 2023. He is playing better than ever.
Patrick Reed (+10000)
A host of former champions have claims including LIV Golf’s Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia and maybe even Phil Mickelson, but it’s Patrick Reed who looks the best value option from the breakaway circuit. Reed won the Masters in 2018 and has posted Augusta results of 10-8-35-4-12 from 2020 onwards. He has been striking the ball well on the LIV Tour, finishing seventh at a devilishly difficult Doral in Miami on Sunday. A short-game genius, the pugnacious Texan warrants more respect in the betting.
