The dogs have not been barking the NFL lately. Favorites went 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in Week 14. Additionally, double-digit favorites are 7-0 against the number and straight up over the last 2 weeks. We are looking for that to change in Week 15.
Despite the recent struggles, betting underdogs has been insanely profitable so far this NFL season. With that in mind it’s time for us to take a trip to The Dog House. Here, I will highlight my 3 favorite underdogs for the week. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our picks on the side and total for every single NFL game.
New Orleans Saints +11 (-110) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The New Orleans Saints play with a ton of pride, and they will get hyped up for this prime time game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night. One of the main reasons why the Saints are appealing in this matchup is because Alvin Kamara is back and healthy. The Saints are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS without Kamara in the lineup, but they are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS when he plays. Kamara ran the ball 27 times for 120 yards in his return last week, and he should be ready to roll. In total, the Saints posted 203 rushing yards on 44 carries and found the end zone 3 times last week. Granted it was against the hapless Jets, but it’s clear that the Saints are at their best with Kamara in the lineup.
Taysom Hill now has a few games as the team’s starting QB under his belt, and he should be a bit more comfortable running the offense (at least I hope). Buffalo’s Josh Allen ran all over a normally solid Tampa Bay rushing defense (12 carries, 109 yards and a touchdown), so perhaps Hill can exploit some of those same weaknesses. It’s also worth noting that Sean Payton and the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Bucs. Look for the Saints to show some fight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Houston Texans +4 (-110) over Jacksonville Jaguars
In case you missed the news, Urban Meyer is out as the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Was Meyer’s short tenure in Jacksonville the worst coaching display in NFL history? That is certainly up for debate, but if there is one thing that is not up for debate, it is that the Jaguars are not a good team. Their opponent, the Houston Texans, aren’t very good either, but it’s hard to fathom how the Jaguars can be laying points (especially more than a field goal) over anyone right now. The line has actually moved in Jacksonville’s favor since Meyer was fired (-3 to -4).
These teams met back in Week 1 and the Texans won 37-21. A lot has changed since then, but I think the value in this one is still on the Texans. The Jaguars laid an egg last week in a 20-0 loss to the Titans, while the Texans didn’t look half bad. QB Davis Mills played relatively well, throwing for 331 yards with a touchdown and no picks. The Jaguars are 1-5 SU at home this season, and the lone win came by 3 points against the Bills in one of the season’s biggest outliers thus far. In fact, both of Jacksonville’s wins this season have come by exactly 3 points. I don’t see them beating anyone by a substantial margin, and I will gladly take the 4 points with Houston.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars.
New York Giants +10.5 (-110) over Dallas Cowboys
I still don’t trust this Cowboys team. They are one of the most volatile teams in the league, and consistency continues to be an issue on both sides of the ball. A prime example of this was seen in last week’s game against Washington. Dallas looked invincible in the first half and led 24-0 at the break. Things then went south in the second half, and the ‘Boys barely hung on for a 27-20 win. Divisional road games are never easy, and you never really know which Cowboys team you are going to see from week to week — or even half to half for that matter.
Don’t get me wrong, the Giants are not the greatest team out there either. There have not been many positives for Joe Judge’s team so far this season, but it might be catching the Cowboys at the right time. This will be Dallas’ third consecutive road game, and New York is back at home after back-to-back road losses. That seems to bode well for the Giants, as they have won their last 3 home games. QB Daniel Jones remains doubtful to play, but the good news is that RB Saquon Barkley is looking more and more healthy. He has increased his rushing total in each of his last 4 games, so he appears to be gaining confidence from week to week. Overall, I just can’t lay this many points with an inconsistent Dallas squad in a divisional road game.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants.
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