Andrew Wilsher
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Welcome to The Burning Question, where three of our NFL experts give their thoughts on a big talking point coming out of the past week’s football action.
After Week 13 saw a change at the top of the AFC, Week 14 delivered the same in the NFC. Thanks to the Arizona Cardinals’ loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, it is now the Green Bay Packers who control the own destiny in terms of bagging home-field advantage en route to the Super Bowl. Still, Green Bay has plenty of company near the top. In fact, at FanDuel Sportsbook there are a whopping 5 teams currently priced between +230 and +600 to win the conference. With the craziness in the NFC, it’s time to turn our attention there after focusing on the AFC North last week (do the Ravens have what it takes to hold on?).
So, which one of those 5 top contenders is the cream of the crop in the NFC? Which has the best value based on the current odds? Or is there a deep sleeper lurking in wild-card position that is poised to make postseason noise? Our NFL experts — Jared Smith, Andrew Ortenberg, and Ricky Dimon — give their thoughts on muddled NFC picture.
Jared Smith: This is the Packers’ year
Green Bay finished painfully short of the Super Bowl last January, losing in the NFC Championship game to the eventual champion Bucs. With Arizona’s struggles in primetime, and a trio of key starters on both sides of the ball set to return for the Packers down the stretch, I believe this is Aaron Rodgers’ year to finally get over the hump again.
If you’ve been keeping up with my “Back to the Futures” columns this season, you know I have a reasonably sized bet on the Packers to win the Super Bowl and the NFC. At this point you’re not getting a ton of value with their futures price, but considering Green Bay has the seventh easiest schedule and an inside track at the first-round bye, there are worse bets you can make right now than the Pack to win it all.
Check out Jared Smith’s Back to the Futures column, where he gives his best futures bets ahead of Week 15
Andrew Ortenberg: At these prices, give me the Rams
If you put a gun to my head on who is winning the NFC, I’d probably say either the Bucs or Packers. But with futures betting, it’s all about price. At these current prices, I’m most enticed by the Rams at +600. A lot of people wrote off Los Angeles following a few bad games, but head coach Sean McVay’s squad showed last night on Monday Night Football that it is still very much a contender. The Rams’ defense is trending upward, and they managed to mostly shut down Kyler Murray even without Jalen Ramsey last night.
Matthew Stafford appears to have put his struggles behind him, and Odell Beckham is starting to find his footing in the offense. With Beckham, Cooper Kupp, and an emerging Van Jefferson, it’s going to be very hard to keep the Rams from scoring in the playoffs. And with Ramsey and Aaron Donald, the defense is always going to be capable of dominating.
Check out our lastest Pickswise Power Rankings.
Ricky Dimon: It’s still the Bucs, baby
To be the best you have to beat the best, and last time I checked the Bucs were still the reigning Super Bowl champions. To be honest, though, even if last year is last year I think this Tampa Bay team really is once again the best. Like they did in 2020 (winning their last 8 games – playoffs included – on the heels of a 7-5 start), the Bucs have heated up in the second half. A 6-3 record wasn’t bad, but 10-3 is a lot better – and that’s what it is now thanks to a 4-game winning streak. This stretch includes victories over AFC playoff contenders in the Colts and Bills.
I think the Bucs, Packers, and Cardinals (despite their loss on Monday) are the three best teams in the conference. Rodgers has the Pack on a roll, but their offensive line is in shambles. That will be exploited in the playoffs by elite opponents with formidable defenses. Arizona is just 3-3 since starting the year 7-0. Since Week 4, its best wins are over currently 7-6 San Francisco.
By the way, Brady is now a considerable -175 favorite to win NFL MVP. And playoff Brady is even better than regular-season Brady! I’m not prepared to bet against him, even if his team has the shortest odds.
Check out our picks on the side and total for EVERY Week 15 matchup
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