Andrew Wilsher
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Welcome to The Burning Question, where three of our NFL experts give their thoughts on a big talking point coming out of the past week’s football action.
Wild Card Weekend is officially in the books, and we’re down to just 8 teams left in contention for the Super Bowl as we turn our attention to the Divisional Round. We saw some downright dominant displays this past weekend, but the two teams that looked the most ferocious were the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills obliterated the Patriots 47-17 in one of the most one-sided playoff games in recent history, while the Chiefs demolished the Steelers 42-21.
The Bills and Chiefs will now go toe-to-toe this Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium to close out the Divisional Round. But after such great efforts last week, who will come out on top? Will it be another high-scoring matchup as their last couple of encounters have been, or will the game be won on defense? It’s time for our NFL experts — Jared Smith, Andrew Ortenberg and Ricky Dimon — to give their best bets for this weekend’s standout playoff game.
Jared Smith: Points, points, and more points
The total definitely caught my eye here, opening around 53 and immediately seeing sharp money push it up to 54 and even 55 in some spots. The total closed at 57 and landed on 58 (Bills 38-20) the last time these teams played back in Week 5, and the AFC Championship game last season landed on 62 (Chiefs 38-24).
There is a case to be made for an improved KC defense doing a much better job containing Josh Allen than the Pats did this past Saturday night, and the Chiefs have allowed just 16.1 points per game over their last 11. But if you dig deeper, the two best quarterbacks KC faced during that stretch were Joe Burrow (34 points allowed) and Justin Herbert (28 points allowed). Besides that, the Chiefs defense has feasted on the likes of Derek Carr (twice), Big Ben (twice), Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott (without Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb), Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock.
I don’t see a ton of value in the side, as I think Chiefs -2 is a fair number for this matchup considering it closed at KC -3 back in Week 5 when the Bills blew out the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
Get Jared’s analysis on all the opening lines for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round games
Andrew Ortenberg: Give me the Chiefs
I’ll take the Chiefs -2.5. Sure the Bills dominated the first matchup between these teams, but a lot has changed since then. That first meeting came all the way back in Week 5, when Kansas City’s defense was playing at a historically poor level. In each of their first 5 games, the Chiefs gave up at least 29 points. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit started to turn things around shortly after that, and they finished the season strong. In 7 of their last 10 games, they gave up 17 points or fewer.
Crucially, they’ve gotten a lot healthier on that side of the ball. Key pieces in Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward both missed that first game against Buffalo, which is huge. On the flip side, the Bills will be without top corner Tre’Davious White, who they still had in that Week 5 game. It’s going to be a lot harder to slow down Hill without White in the lineup. The Chiefs have officially found their groove again on offense, and just because the Bills stormed Arrowhead and won once doesn’t mean they’ll do it again.
Ricky Dimon: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+105)
Playoff time is Kelce time. Okay, any time is Kelce time — but the playoffs especially. Dating back to the AFC Championship between Kansas City and New England at the end of the 2017 season, he has scored touchdowns in 6 of 8 playoff games (and that doesn’t even count last week’s touchdown pass!). He has scored a total of 9 TDs in those 8 games. How can you still get him at plus money to find the endzone in a postseason competition?! That would be a fair question to ask. And it’s a question that should be acted upon in the form of a perfect prop bet for Sunday night’s festivities.
Kelce’s recent playoff history isn’t the only reason to think this play at +105 is a steal. The 32-year-old has reached pay-dirt in 4 consecutive contests after catching 5 passes for 101 yards and 1 TD during last weekend’s rout of Pittsburgh. In those 4 games, he has delivered a total of 5 touchdowns (including 2 against the Chargers in Week 16). Did Kelce find the endzone when the Chiefs and Bills collided back in Week? You bet he did. There is no reason why he won’t do so again.
Read Ricky’s betting breakdown from a not-so-Wild Card Weekend
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