I’m going to look at the best NFL teams against the spread so far through nine weeks of the 2019 NFL season and see who’s performing the best and some reasons why. There’s currently five teams who are 70 percent or better ATS, let’s take a closer look at them.
New England Patriots – 6-2 ATS (75%)
It should be no surprise to you that the Patriots are top of the list given how well they perform against the spread historically. Despite all the noise that their spreads are over inflated big numbers, they still cover spreads at an impressive rate. They’ve covered double digits on three occassions this season and would even have covered the opening double digit spreads in week’s seven and eight.
Week 1 -5.5 vs Steelers
Week 2 -18 at Dolphins
Week 5 -15.5 at Redskins
Week 6 -16.5 vs Giants
Week 7 -9.5 at Jets (opened -10)
Week 8 -9.5 vs Browns (opened -9.5)
They could have easily been 7-1 ATS, the only reason they didn’t cover 20.5 in week three at home to the Jets was because they brought in backup QB Jarrett Stidham who threw a pick six and the game ended 30-14.
Since 2003, New England are 177-117-7 against the spread which is a league high cover percentage of 60.2% and they’ve beat the spread by an average margin of 3.6 points. You don’t make money betting against New England.
Green Bay Packers – 6-2 ATS (75%)
The Packers are currently top of the NFC North at 7-1 and of the teams with one or two losses they have arguably played one of the toughest schedules. They’ve won two road games outright at Chicago and Dallas as underdogs and Aaron Rodgers is starting to look like the leading contender for the regular season MVP.
A big factor contributing factor here is that Green Bay finally has a defense. They rank 11th in points allowed at 20.4 points per game. Their two big offseason acquisitions ‘the Smith brothers’, Za’Darius and Preston have made a big impact with a combined 15 sacks and 53 tackles.
Early in the season bettors were going against the Packers. In week three Denver moved from +8 to +7 and failed to cover, in week five Dallas moved from -3 to -3.5 and lost outright and in week seven Oakland moved from 6.5 to 5.5 underdogs and failed to cover.
Bettors are starting to respect the Packers, last week the line went from -3 to -5 on the road against the Chiefs. The support continues for the Cheeseheads this week, we’ve already seen the opening number of -3 move to -3.5 for their trip to face the Los Angeles Chargers. We like the Packers ATS this week and they are one of our NFL picks against the spread for week 9.
Los Angeles Rams – 6-2 ATS (75%)
The Rams were a surpise to me when I started looking into the best teams against the spread in 2019. I would say they’ve been slightly lucky in two games, covering -2 against the Saints when Brees went down injured in week two and having a last minute score chalked off in London against the Bengals which would have seen them fall short of the 12 point spread.
Bettors have been against the Rams quite a lot this season but they keep covering the number:
Week 1 -3 to -1.5 at Panthers
Week 2 -3 to -2 vs Saints
Week 4 -10.5 to -9.5 vs Buccaneers
Week 8 -12.5 to -12 vs Bengals
The Rams are on a bye this week after their trip to London but we have NFL picks for all other week 9 games.
New Orleans Saints – 6-2 ATS (75%)
It should be no surprise that the Saints are one of the best teams against the spread in 2019. When Drew Brees went down in week two everyone was writing the Saints off with Teddy Bridgewater under centre. Fast forward to week seven and Teddy B is sitting at 5-0 as a starter including some wins against tough defenses – Jacksonville, Dallas, Chicago, Seattle.
Drew Brees returned as a starter in week 8 and after brushing off the rust in the first quarter threw for 373 yards, three touchdowns and had a 79.1% completion rate. The question now for the saints is will Teddy still be in New Orleans after the trade deadline or will he be dealt to another team?
The Saints are on a bye in week nine but it will be interesting to see how they perform against the spread moving forward. I would assume there will be some regression with Brees returning and their next four games are against divisional opposition so there could be some good spots to go against them.
