Andrew Ortenberg
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have a chance to end a drought 32 years in the making when they take the field for Game 6 of the World Series against the Tampa Bay Rays. While we’ve got plenty of thoughts on the side and total, which you can read here in our game preview, right now let’s talk about some props.
Blake Snell under 5.5 Ks (+128)
FanDuel has this line at +128, and getting this much plus-money here is a steal. Snell had a great strikeout game in his first appearance in this series, that much is undeniable. But oddsmakers have clearly overreacted to that aberration, as he had four or fewer punch-outs in each of his previous three outings.
In addition to this number just being flat-out inflated, there are also a few things working in the under’s favor here. For starters this Dodgers lineup has already seen him a couple of times through, and Snell started to melt down toward the end of his first start. They should see him much better this time around, and be less prone to swings and misses.
Snell has struggled with his control, surrendering four walks in each of his last two outings, and the thing I like most about this prop is that it’s an elimination game. There’s nothing left for Tampa to save their bullpen for, so I think Snell will be pulled at the first sign of trouble. I don’t see him going very deep into this game.
Mookie Betts over 0.5 hits (-200)
Oddsmakers have lowered this line back to -200 from a height of around -250, and I think there’s a lot of value again. For a -200 bet to be worth it, it only needs to hit 67 percent of the time, and I think the odds of a Betts hit are far better than 2/3. For starers he bats leadoff for he best offense in baseball, ensuring he gets the most at bats possible for any player on any team.
In fact, he’s gotten five at bats in each of his last three games. Betts now has a hit in 34 of his past 41 games, and 34/41 equals around 83 percent. I also am not scared by the fact that he’s facing a lefty in Snell, even though Betts has been a bit worse against left-handers in recent years. He’s faced Snell a bunch from their time in the AL East together, and is batting .304 with an OPS of .892 in his career against him. In a close-out game, I don’t see how the incredibly clutch Betts goes hitless.
