Andrew Ortenberg
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The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up a relatively easy win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series. We cashed another same game parlay at nearly 19/1 yesterday, and will look to keep the momentum going with another round of props. We’ve got plenty of thoughts on the side and total, which you can read in our game preview here, but right now we’ll be talking about some player props.
Julio Urias under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)
As the old saying goes, what goes up must come down. I think that’s what we see in this case as Urias is riding high off his three perfect innings to close out Game 7 of the NLCS. It doesn’t get much better than the playoffs the 24-year-old has had so far, and I think he’s due for a bit of a letdown. Even when he has his best stuff the Dodgers never let him go too deep into games, and he hasn’t thrown more than five at a time this postseason.
As such, even if he’s pitching well, it’s going to be really hard for him to reach this total. Urias certainly isn’t a strikeout pitcher, as he had only 45 in 55 regular season innings this year. This line has been inflated because of Urias’ NLCS heroic, and there’s a lot of value on the under.
Max Muncy over 0.5 hits (-137)
DraftKings has this at only -137, which I think is pretty light considering Muncy is on fire at the moment. He has reached base in all but one game this postseason, has hits in four of his last five, and has multiple hits in two of his last three. Muncy is clearly seeing the ball really well right now, and he’s got all the momentum in the world after his clutch two-RBI base knock on Friday night.
Muncy hits, runs, and RBIs vs. Hunter Renfroe (-165)
I really love taking this head to head total hits, runs, and RBIs here, and I don’t mind laying -165 with Muncy. Renfroe has been ice cold all season long, and he hasn’t even been an everyday player during the playoffs. He has only two at bats in this series so far, and is 0-2. In the playoffs overall he’s just 3-17, and he batted .156 during the regular season.
Renfroe is batting seventh for the Rays and they’re the home team so he’s not guaranteed as many at bats as Muncy, who bats fourth, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Renfroe is pulled before the end of the game. He started Tuesday’s Game 1, but was pinch-hit for after just two at bats. I’m pretty surprised oddsmakers made this line so low, especially considering Muncy has been playing so well recently.
