Andrew Ortenberg
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The World Series is back for Game 2 on the heels of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ dominant win over the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1. We went three for three on props in that game as well as hitting on the side and total for a perfect 5-0 sweep, and now we’re back with a new batch of props.
We of course have plenty of thoughts on the side and total, which you can read in our game preview here, but right now let’s talk about some props:
Blake Snell under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Getting even money is a steal here. Snell is a pretty good strikeout pitcher but he’s not on any ridiculous level, and he hasn’t had his best stuff recently. In each of his past three starts, all in the postseason, he has failed to top four punch-outs, so I don’t see him getting to six against this elite Dodgers lineup.
Snell didn’t go deeper than five innings in any of those games, even in one where he pitched fairly well and only gave up one earned run. Clearly, the Rays don’t plan on having him pitch all that long, which will make it very difficult for him to cash this over. This is a must-win game for the Rays if they want to have any chance in this series, so I think he’ll have a pretty short leash. At the first sign of trouble, expect Tampa to go to the bullpen.
Mookie Betts over 0.5 hits (-225)
We cashed the over on this Mookie prop yesterday, and we’re going back to the well again on the over 0.5 here. Oddsmakers have adjusted it from -200 to -225, but I still think there’s value. A -225 line means there needs to be a 69 percent chance of it cashing to break a profit, and I think that’s being conservative.
Betts has now hit safely in 11 of the Dodgers’ 13 playoff games, and he had a hit in 21 of their 24 final regular season games. Clearly, those figures are a lot higher than 69 percent. He has a ton of momentum at the moment, and has seven hits over his past four games. Batting leadoff means he gets maximum at bat opportunities, and he also has a history of success against Snell from their time in the AL East together. Betts isn’t going hitless in this one.
