Andrew Ortenberg
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The World Series is finally here, with the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s the seasoned team that’s been here before versus the upstart team taking the league by storm. The Dodgers have made the fall classic twice in the past few years, but fell both times.
As they look to seal the deal this time around we’ve got plenty of thoughts on the side and total, which you can read in our game preview here, but today we’ll be taking a look at some props.
Mookie Betts over 0.5 hits (-200)
This one is juiced to -200, but it still makes plenty of sense. Betts is the leader of this team, and he’s been incredibly consistent so far in the playoffs. Through 12 postseason games, he has a hit in 10 of them, so I’m not scared at all at laying this kind of price.
He also had some success against Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow during their time in the AL East together, as Betts has reached base in five of his 11 career plate appearances against Glasnow. The outfielder also bats leadoff for the Dodgers, ensuring that he gets the most at bats of anyone on the team, giving us a little extra cushion to cash this prop. Betts is going to get at least one hit.
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits (-157)
These plays are somewhat correlated since if the Dodgers’ offense is having a good day, which I expect them to, then both these guys are likely getting hits. Getting such a reduced price on Bellinger is good value, as he has now hit safely in nine of 12 playoff games.
He clearly sees Glasnow very well, as he is 2-2 with two home runs in his brief career against the right-hander. In Glasnow’s last start against the Astros he was shaky, giving up eight hits and four earned runs to go with a pair of homers. Bellinger has a ton of momentum following his clutch home run in Game 7 against the Braves, and I think he’ll carry it over here.
Clayton Kershaw over 6.5 strikeouts (-167)
Kershaw should be in for a big strikeout day, even if he doesn’t pitch that well overall. He has 23 punch-outs in 19 playoff innings this year, and as long as he goes six innings here he should have no problem cashing this over. Kershaw has heard all the jokes about how he can’t deliver in October, and he’ll be highly motivated to come out and show his best stuff here.
Making matters much easier here is the matchup, as the Rays strikeout a ton. They have by far the most strikeouts of any team in the playoffs, and they also led the league in strikeouts during the regular season. That lineup going up against a pitcher of Kershaw’s caliber is a recipe for a whole bunch of Ks.
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