Ricky Dimon
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It’s Thanksgiving, which means we are treated to a trio of NFL games on this wonderful Thursday. After the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys host their traditional Turkey Day games, the Green Bay Packers will entertain the Miami Dolphins in Thursday’s nightcap. It is a crucial contest for both clubs as they continue their bids for playoff berths.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Dolphins vs Packers predictions.
Dolphins +3.5 (-120)
Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown (+155)
Josh Jacobs Over 14.5 receiving yards (-120)
Parlay odds: +538
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Miami receiver Tyreek Hill finding the endzone would obviously work well with a Dolphins cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs to rack up his fair share of receiving yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t keep this one close. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Dolphins +3.5 (-120)
Tua Tagovailo is back for Miami, and not a moment too soon. Once 2-6, head coach Mike McDaniel’s squad has won 3 games in a row to storm back into postseason contention. It is true that the Dolphins have taken some of their losses with Tagovailoa at the helm this season, but it’s obvious that they are an entirely different team when he is on the field. It has shown this month, with victories over the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots. All 3 were convincing beatdowns, as well. The Packers are playing well, too, but their pass defense is mediocre at best and that means this could be a somewhat favorable matchup for Tagovailoa and company. A freezing-cold matchup between 2 solid but unspectacular teams feels like a tossup to me, so let’s take the points.
Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown (+155)
There is no need to overthink this one. Getting Hill well into plus money to score a touchdown is value that should not be passed up. He has put 6 on the board in 2 of the last 3 games, which should come as no surprise now that Tagovailoa is once again delivering the football. Hill was a shadow of his real self while his QB1 was sidelined by a concussion, but it has been back to business over the past few weeks. As mentioned, the Packers’ pass defense isn’t anything special. I don’t see them keeping Hill from reaching paydirt.
Josh Jacobs Over 14.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Dolphins have watched at least 6 targets go to opposing running backs in each of the last 4 weeks – a drastic jump in that number following their first 7 games of the season. Meanwhile, Jacobs has done plenty of damage in the passing game of late. After averaging 15.8 receiving yards per game during the month of October, he has gone for 23.7 through 4 November outings. The Alabama product is also averaging 3 targets per game at home compared to 2.4 away from Lambeau Field this season. It’s a modest number, so I have no reservations about backing the over.
