Sam Avellone
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The Longhorns finished the season 8-5 overall with 4 one-score losses to ranked opponents along the way, including a 1-point home loss to Alabama in Week 2. While the close losses were agonizing, the Longhorns improved greatly from their 5-7 record in 2021 and may have given us a sneak peak of what they are capable of in 2023 – their last season in the Big 12.
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Texas Longhorns 2023 College Football Season Odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Longhorns National Championship Odds
The Longhorns are listed at +2200 to win the national title.
Texas Longhorns Big 12 Championship Odds
Texas is the favorite to win the conference at +100.
Texas Longhorns Odds to Reach the College Football Playoff
With odds of +300, the Longhorns have the 6th-lowest odds to reach the College Football Playoff.
Texas Longhorns 2022 Season Recap
Texas maintained a top 20 mark in scoring, averaging over 35 points per game against FBS opponents despite a multi-week injury absence for starting quarterback Quinn Ewers – who was knocked out of the Alabama game in the first half. Texas’s offensive success was built around an elite rushing attack that included all-American Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, both of whom averaged at least 6 yards per carry and are now playing in the NFL. Robinson led the team with 1,575 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns while Johnson added 554 yards and 5 touchdowns despite the offensive line being graded outside the top 65 in run blocking by PFF. The line was much better in pass protection, where it was ranked inside the top 35 in passing down line yards and sack rate per FootballOutsiders. In fact, Ewers faced pressure on just 22.6% of his dropbacks last year, which was the 7th-lowest percentage of 144 qualified FBS quarterbacks. Behind a sturdy line, Ewers and backup quarterback Hudson Card utilized a talented group of pass-catchers that included 3 players who each surpassed 50 receptions and 600 yards while combining for 15 touchdowns – wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington as well as tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders.
In Steve Sarkisian’s second season, Texas not only maintained its firepower offensively but showed dramatic improvement defensively. In 2021, the Longhorns gave up 31.1 points per game to FBS opponents. Last season, they gave up just 21.6 – which was a top-20 finish nationally. Furthermore, the Longhorns finished inside the top 15 in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, as well as inside the top 25 in opponent points scored per drive and opposing touchdown rate. Texas’s defense was anchored by linebacker Jaylan Ford, who accumulated 119 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 4 interceptions, and was able to rely on a talented duo of edge rushers in Demarvion Overshown and Barryn Sorrell that combined for 19 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in 2022. The secondary was the Achilles heel of the defense, ranking outside the top 60 in coverage according to PFF.
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Texas Longhorns 2023 College Football Season Outlook
Texas will not have either one of its top running backs from last season, but it returns its 3 top pass catchers as well as Ewers and all 5 of the offensive linemen that led the team in snaps. Coach Sarkisian improved Texas’s wide receiver depth by bringing in Georgia wide receiver Adonai Mitchell and 2 four-star freshmen in DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Niblett, while Isaiah Neyor will be back in the mix as well after he missed all of last year with an injury sustained in preseason. All things considered, this could be one of the deepest pass-catching groups in the country, if not the deepest. Replacing Robinson and Johnson will not be easy, but redshirt sophomore Jonathan Brooks is ready for his moment after scoring 5 touchdowns and gaining a team-best 6.6 yards per carry on 30 attempts last season. True freshman running back CJ Baxer is also someone to keep an eye on, as he is expected to make an impact for the Longhorns in 2023.
On the defensive side of the ball, Ford returns for his senior year, along with 2 of the other top 4 leading tacklers from a season ago – Jerrin Thompson and Jahdae Barron. Sorrell returns for his junior year after leading the team in sacks and will play outside of returning interior linemen Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat, both of whom were graded in the top 6 in rush defense among all who played the position in the Big 12. True freshman Anthony Hill Jr. is expected to make an instant impact as an edge rusher, and highly-touted Arkansas transfer Jalen Catalon would be a huge boost to the secondary if he manages to stay healthy. Wake Forest transfer Gavin Holmes and four-star freshman Malik Muhammad round out the new additions in the defensive backfield, giving the Longhorns some competitive depth in that area.
Texas’s schedule is not the easiest, but it is manageable. The Longhorns open the season with a tune-up game against Rice before traveling to Alabama in Week 2 for a rematch with the Crimson Tide. After its road trip to Tuscaloosa, Texas hosts Wyoming before traveling to Baylor. The Longhorns then host Kansas and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks before a bye in Week 7. Following its week off, Texas will play 2 new conference opponents at Houston and then at home against BYU before hosting Kansas State. Texas’s only back-to-back road games are in Week 10 and Week 11 against TCU and Iowa State, respectively, before the Longhorns end the season at home against Texas Tech.
Best Bet: Texas Longhorns to win the Big 12 (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings at the time of publishing.
As long as the books are offering plus-money on the Texas Longhorns, I am a buyer. On paper, the Longhorns have the fewest question marks in the conference with so many quality pieces returning to go along with talented transfer and freshman classes on both sides of the ball. I believe Ewers has the highest upside among the Big 12 quarterbacks thanks to an offensive line that does not allow much pressure and an incredibly talented group of wide receivers that could be one of the nation’s best. Furthermore, Texas’s schedule is manageable, especially in conference play where it will have just 1 back-to-back road trip while drawing Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Texas Tech at home. I have a hard time seeing the Longhorns losing more than 1 conference game, if any, and expect them to be a favorite in all of them. As long as they make it to the conference championship, they are going to be favored over anyone else in the Big 12, making plus-money odds to win the conference very appealing.
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