Sam Avellone
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Coach Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies ranked 6th in the preseason poll last season, just to finish 5-7 overall with an outright loss to Appalachian State at home as well as a 6-game losing streak from the beginning of October to the middle of November. The Aggies’ offense struggled immensely and the defense was poor against the run, but there is reason for hope this year. Fisher hired Bobby Petrino to be the offensive coordinator and recent rumors suggest Petrino will be the one calling plays. If that is the case, Aggies fans should have something to look forward to every week.
Texas A&M Aggies 2023 College Football Season Odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas A&M National Championship Odds
The Aggies are 60/1 to win the national title.
Texas A&M Aggies SEC Championship Odds
Texas A&M is 20/1 to win the SEC, behind Georgia, Alabama, LSU and Tennessee.
Texas A&M Aggies SEC West Odds
The Aggies have the third-lowest odds to win the West at +500.
Texas A&M Aggies Odds to Reach the College Football Playoff
Texas A&M’s odds to make the playoff are currently listed at 13/1.
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Texas A&M Aggies 2022 Season Recap
The Aggies vastly underperformed last season, especially on the offensive end. They ranked outside the top 90 in drive efficiency, touchdown rate and points per drive, and they scored just 22 points per game (97th overall) against FBS opponents – including a 20-point performance against lowly UMass. Their struggles could be attributed to poor injury luck, but the production at quarterback was not reliable for much of the season. Haynes King started the year, but was benched after the loss to Appalachian State in Week 2. An injury to backup quarterback Max Johnson led to King re-assuming the starting role just for freshman Connor Weigman to take over when King was injured against South Carolina in late October. The offensive line was average, ranking 71st in average line yards, 50th in opportunity rate and 64th in sack rate, but the pieces at running back and wide receiver were very good. Devon Achane, now with the Miami Dolphins, rushed for 1,102 yards and 8 touchdowns with 5.6 yards per carry, while Evan Stewart and Moose Muhammad III combined for 1,259 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns and carried a majority of the pass-catching workload after Ainias Smith was injured against Arkansas.
Texas A&M was a bit better on the defensive side of the ball, where it ranked 43rd in drive efficiency and 33rd in touchdown rate. However, the Aggies struggled with the 81st-rated turnover percentage and were 115th in sacks per game against FBS opponents. Furthermore, they were not good against the run, as they ranked 107th in yards per attempt allowed and 124th in rushing yards allowed per game. Defensive backs Demani Richardson and Antonio Johnson led the team in tackles, recording 73 and 71 respectively, while linebacker Chris Russell added 66 tackles, 7 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. Fadil Diggs led the team in sacks with 3 despite playing just 8 games due to injury, and Jardin Gilbert was the most productive in the secondary with 2 interceptions and 4 passes defended.
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Texas A&M Aggies 2023 College Football Season Outlook
There has been quite a bit of back and forth in the offseason on who will be calling plays for the Aggies, but Petrino seems to be the likely candidate based on quotes coming out of training camp lately – which would be a huge upgrade for this unit. Weigman figures to be the starting quarterback after throwing for 896 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions over the last 5 games and will be playing behind an offensive line that returns all 5 pieces with in-game experience. The Aggies will have to replace Achane’s production in the backfield with a committee of largely unproven backs in junior Amari Daniels, sophomore Le’Veon Moss and five-star freshman Rueben Owens, but the wide receiver room should be reliable. Stewart, Smith and Muhammad all return this season, joining 2 four-star freshmen in Raymond Cottrell and Michah Tease and senior tight end Max Wright – who will have to assume a bigger role with Donovan Green out for the year after tearing his ACL in a scrimmage just a few days ago.
The defensive line has a wealth of returning pieces like Diggs, McKinnley Jackson, and Shemar Turner, and the linebackers will be led by an experienced duo in Russell and Cooper – but increased productivity against the run and in the pass rush will be required in coordinator DJ Durkin’s second season with the program. What should remain constant is the success in the secondary, as Richardson, Gilbert and Tyreek Cappell all return after having major roles last season. North Carolina transfer Tony Grimes should have a big role as well, making this defensive backfield one of the most talented in the conference.
The Aggies open the season with a home game against New Mexico before a road trip to Coral Gables to take on the Miami Hurricanes. Texas A&M then has another tune-up game at home against Louisiana Monroe in Week 3 before starting conference play against Auburn at Kyle Field in College Station. The Aggies finish September with a neutral game against Arkansas at AT&T Stadium and then start the new month with a home matchup against Alabama. They will travel to Knoxville in the following week before a much-needed bye in Week 8. Following the bye, Texas A&M hosts South Carolina and then travels to Oxford for a matchup with Ole Miss before consecutive home games against Mississippi State and Abilene Christian. Finally, the Aggies finish the season in Baton Rouge by taking on the LSU Tigers.
Best Bet: Texas A&M Aggies under 8.5 wins (-170)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Aggies should improve this season, but I am not confident enough in them as a whole to pick them to win at least 9 games. Petrino should improve the offense dramatically, but I fear the defense will be about the same this season against the run – which does not bode well for the Aggies when considering their schedule. Miami, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU can exploit poor run defenses, leaving little margin for error for an offense implementing a new system with a new coordinator. Assuming they do not lose a game they are expected to win, the Aggies feel like a 7 or 8-win team this season that shows improvement year-over-year but does not surpass their season win total.
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