Caleb Wilfinger
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These are two teams that are seemingly trending in opposite directions. The Chargers are coming off an excellent win over the Dolphins and the Titans have gotten smoked in two consecutive games against the Eagles and Jaguars. Tennessee’s offense is struggling mightily, even with a ton of Derrick Henry carries setting the tone on the ground. However, the Titans defense is stout and their offense is due for some positive regression against a weaker Chargers unit. Our expert has odds and predictions for this intriguing matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers expert predictions
These are the situations Mike Vrabel lives for. The Titans head coach is 21-8 all-time in his career as an underdog of 3 or more, which is exactly the situation Tennessee finds themselves in this week against a rejuvenated Chargers team coming off an upset win of their own on Sunday night. Our expert is behind the Titans’ ability to pick themselves up off the mat in a desperate spot, so let’s get into our expert’s predictions for this contest.
Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Titans +3, Chargers -3
Total Points Over/Under: 47.5 points
Money Line Odds: Titans +140, Chargers -160
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- Bengals vs Buccaneers predictions
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Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this clash between the Titans and Chargers.
Titans vs Chargers point spread pick: Titans +3 (-110)
Buying low and selling high is always a good long-term strategy in the NFL, despite the recency bias of what we saw last week. I was impressed with how the Chargers played, especially defensively, against a Dolphins team that has all the talent in the world. However, I think Brandon Staley deserves a lot of the credit for how his team out-schemed Mike McDaniel despite being short-handed with their personnel, especially in the secondary without Derwin James. Miami likes to take shots deep middle, but the Chargers did a nice job with outside leverage and forced Tua to make accurate throws outside the hashmarks, which he was unable to do. The Dolphins abandoned the run for most of the game, but even when they tried, they weren’t very effective, with Raheem Mostert being held to 3.4 yards per carry. Tua broke off a couple of nice ones on broken plays, but overall they had just a 31% success rate on running plays.
In steps Derrick Henry and a Titans offense desperate to break out after 3 turnovers against the Jaguars on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill was responsible for 2 by himself (1 INT, 1 fumble), and I expect a much better game from him against a very undermanned Chargers defense that could struggle against the physicality that Tennessee will bring. Add in the possible return of Treylon Burks from a concussion and I think we’re getting a favorable number here at 3 with the Titans.
Be sure to check out our full Titans vs Chargers predictions
Titans vs Chargers Over/Under totals pick: Under 47.5 (-110)
One of the most fascinating matchups in this game is how Mike Vrabel and DC Shane Bowen will scheme things out against Justin Herbert. Despite his infinite arm talent, Herbert has really struggled against the blitz this season, grading out as one of the worst QBs in EPA/play. On the other side, Tennessee has the lowest blitz rate in the league at 13.8%. If I were Vrabel and Bowen, I would consider breaking that tendency this week and throwing a curveball at Herbert by showing a lot of pressure looks. The rest of this handicap is relatively simple, the Titans will look to establish the run early and often in this game against a Chargers defense ranked 28th in line yards and 29th in EPA/rush. Tennessee’s offense also runs the slowest pace in the league, so if they do control tempo, look for the clock to melt away.
Obviously, Herbert and some explosive plays in the passing game are the kryptonite here. The Chargers also run one of the fastest paces in the NFL, so if Tennessee gets some quick scores and keeps Herbert on the field, then this one could heat up faster than expected. I don’t see that being the most likely game script, however, and I think it’s much more likely that the Titans get out to an early lead and keep things at their tempo, with the winner staying in the low 20s on the scoreboard.
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