Best Bet – Titans Under 8 Wins
Worst Bet- Titans To Win Super Bowl +7000
The 2018 Tennessee Titans were one win away from making the playoffs for the second year in a row, but a loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night in Week 17 eliminated them from playoff contention and put Indy into the playoffs. This will be a make or break season for Marcus Mariota as he enters his fifth year in the NFL. Injuries as well as inconsistent play have made Mariota look like a potential bust to this point in his career and another poor season will likely mark the end of the Mariota era in Tennessee.
The Titans had a below average offense last season, ranking 27th in the NFL in points scored per game with 19.38, 7th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 126.44 and 29th in the NFL in passing yards per game with 185.94.
The Titans addressed the passing game in the draft by takiing AJ Brown in the 2nd round, and many considered Brown to be the top receiver in the class. The Titans already have a good offensive line as well as a good running game with Mariota being a good run option as well at the quarterback position, but in order for Tennessee to take the next step Mariota will need to show more consistency through the air.
The Titans quietly had one of the best defenses in the league last season, ranking 3rd in points allowed per game with 18.94, 18th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed with 116.44 a game and 6th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game with 216.94. Their weakness was in their rush defense which they addressed with the addition of Jeffrey Simmons with their first-round pick, however, Simmons will miss his rookie season with a torn ACL that he suffered during a pre-draft workout.
Titans Win Total: O/U 8 Wins
The Tennessee Titans finished with 9 wins last season which wasn’t quite good enough for the postseason, however had they won against the Colts at home in week 17 they would’ve made the playoffs as the 2nd wild card team in the AFC.
The Titans will have a new OC in Arthur Smith who was promoted after being the tight ends coach last season after their OC from last year, Matt LaFleur, left to become the head coach of the Green Bay Packers. The Titans will likely continue to feature a heavy run-based offense as that has been their biggest strength with Mariota at quarterback.
The defense should remain of the better defenses in the NFL even though they will be without Simmons this season. They do however face a lot of run oriented offenses this season which could be detrimental to their defense as they didn’t do a lot in the offseason to rectify the weakness.
As close as the Titans were to winning 10 games and having won four of their last five games last year, I still don’t see them being greatly improved while other teams in the division have gotten better as well with each addressing specific weaknesses on their teams. As a result, the under 8 wins looks like the best bet for the Titans this season. Even though they have won 9 for multiple seasons in a row, they haven’t made the adjustments necessary to improve their team.
Odds To Make The Playoffs: Yes +240 No -300
The Tennessee Titans were close to making the playoffs last season as the 2nd wild card team in the AFC, but they didn’t address their biggest need on defense, the defensive line. The offense added a playmaker at the wide receiver position in Brown, who should be the difference-maker they’ve needed to improve the passing offense this season.
The Titans do have a tough schedule this year as they will have to play the NFC South as well as tough games in their division. In addition to the already superior Colts and Texans, the Jaguars are also projected to be a better team than the Titans this year and that’s not even mentioning better teams in other divisions in the AFC.
All of these reasons make it extremely difficult to project the Titans to make the playoffs but the price of -300 to miss the playoffs is a high price to pay even though it’s a good bet that they won’t make them. I’d stay away from this prop.
Odds To Win The AFC South: +600
The Tennessee Titans are the biggest underdog to win the AFC South this season and for good reason. They haven’t won the AFC South since the 2008 season, over ten years ago, and there isn’t any reason to believe they will even make the playoffs this year.
They still have to show improvements in the passing game and their rush defense has been slightly below average. The Colts and the Texans are also clearly better teams than the Titans, so I just can’t see Tennessee winning the AFC South this year even if they manage to get past Jacksonville. The odds may seem enticing at 6/1 but the Titans aren’t going to win the division this season and that would be just a waste of money.
Odds To Win The AFC: 33/1
I don’t see the Titans even making the playoffs this season, so it wouldn’t be wise putting money on them to win the AFC Championship and making the Super Bowl. I would even put the Titans in the bottom half of the AFC as well as I believe the Colts, Texans, Patriots, Chargers, Browns, Steelers, Chiefs and the Jaguars just to name a few are all better teams than the Titans. 33/1 odds may look good for a team that was close to qualifying for the playoffs last season but there are a lot of teams that improved weaknesses in the conference while Tennessee mostly stood pat which means they’ll likely have a worse season compared to last year.
Odds To Win The Super Bowl: 70/1
The Titans aren’t even in the top half of the AFC in my opinion and they are somewhat likely to finish in last place in the AFC South. This is not a good bet even at 70/1, and oddsmakers are begging you to bet on something like this. If you like wasting money on extreme longshots that made no offseason moves to improve the team then I guess it would make sense to take the Titans, however there are better options out there than picking the them to win the Super Bowl this season.
