Caleb Wilfinger
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to escape with wins over poor competition, including a miraculous comeback to knock off the Saints on Monday Night Football last week. Now, they’ll get a much tougher challenge against a San Francisco 49ers defense that is widely considered one of the best in football. However, this does mark the first start for Iowa State product Brock Purdy at quarterback, so expectations on the ‘Niners Super Bowl prospects should be tempered a bit. Our expert has odds and predictions for this intriguing NFC matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers expert predictions
Tom Brady returns home to play against his favorite team growing up and will be facing a QB making his first career start in Brock Purdy. It will also be the first time Tom Brady is an underdog against a rookie QB since Vince Young in 2006. That should tell you everything you need to know about how the market feels about this Bucs team after a miraculous win over the Saints on MNF. On the other side, there is obviously a drop-off from Jimmy G to Purdy, with the market indicating about a 3-point move from the lookahead line of 49ers -6 last week. However, our expert seems to think San Francisco will keep rolling so let’s dive into his predictions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Buccaneers +3.5, 49ers -3.5
Total Points Over/Under: 37.5 points
Money Line Odds: Buccaneers +155, 49ers -180
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this clash between the Buccaneers and 49ers.
Buccaneers vs 49ers point spread pick: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
I don’t have a ton of nice things to say about Tampa Bay. Their offense is a very pedestrian 20th in EPA/play this season and their defense is 8th in that category, which isn’t bad, but considering they were a top 5 unit last year and have essentially the same personnel and scheme, in my eyes, they are playing below expectations. They are also outside the top 20 in every win rate category (pass block, run block, pass rush, run stop) and have battled a multitude of injuries. This week’s concern is at right tackle, where Tristan Wirfs is still nursing an ankle injury. The Niners are top 10 in pass rush win rate and adjusted sack rate this season, so the offensive line holding up for Brady will be paramount.
Purdy did not look overwhelmed in relief of Jimmy G last week, and I trust Kyle Shanahan to water down the game plan enough for him to be successful. San Francisco’s offense is all about quick passes in rhythm, as is usually the case with a west coast offense, so as long as Purdy doesn’t hold onto the ball too long, I don’t expect there to be a dramatic drop-off in production. Shanahan has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal with Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle all dangerous in their own uniquely sadistic ways. Getting the ball in those guys’ hands quickly and letting them do their thing has to be the game plan for Shanahan, as long as Purdy executes, I see San Francisco taking care of business at home and spoiling Brady’s homecoming.
Be sure to check out our full Buccaneers vs 49ers predictions
Buccaneers vs 49ers Over/Under totals pick: Over 37 (-110)
I did not understand the buzz surrounding Baker Mayfield going to San Francisco this week. It just didn’t make sense if you consider what the 49ers offense is and who is best suited to run it. Mayfield’s talent far exceeds Brock Purdy, but the name of the game for Kyle Shanahan is timing, with short passing accuracy and footwork being the most important traits a QB can possess. Sadly right now, Baker is a shell of his former self, and I’m glad the team decided to let Purdy lead the charge these final five weeks of the regular season. With Purdy under center, I think this 49ers offense will operate exactly as it has all season, which is relatively efficient. So with all that said, if the market is even slightly overestimating the 3-point move from Jimmy G to Purdy this week, then similar to the Tyler Huntley situation in Baltimore, I do see some value to the over in this game just based on variance alone.
On the other side, I expect Tom Brady to be his usually aggressive self, especially in the passing game. The Bucs have the highest passing play percentage in the NFL at 67%, so the ball will be in the air early and often when Tampa has the ball. Both stop units will certainly have their moments in this game, with both ranked inside the top 8 in DVOA, but I also think this is a tough spot situationally for both. First, the Bucs are coming off a physical divisional matchup on Monday, so they have one less day to recover. Meanwhile, the 49ers have to gear up for a huge divisional road game next Thursday night in Seattle, so we’ll see how much energy they are trying to conserve on the front end. I don’t think this game will be a shootout, but I can absolutely see one side cracking the 24-point threshold, which means we only need 14 from the loser.
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