Andrew Wilsher
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints predictions, picks, odds, spread, lines and betting odds. The divisional round comes to a close with a hot matchup between two NFC South rivals, as the Bucs lock horns with the Saints. New Orleans won both regular-season matchups, including a 38-3 rout, but this Tampa team looks a lot different since then.
Tom Brady has been throwing touchdown passes for fun and it seems like this Buccaneers offense is really starting to click. However, the Saints are back at full strength on offense with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara looking as good as ever in last week’s win over Chicago. Brady and Drew Brees will make for an intriguing battle of the veterans, and there is potential for this one Sunday Night Football game to turn into a shootout.
For now, let’s dive into the current odds and trends for Saturday’s game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints odds and trends
- Money line: Buccaneers +145, Saints -165
- Spread: Saints -3
- Over/under: 51.5
- Key stat: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six against opponents with winning records
- Key stat: The over is 29-13 all-time in playoff games played in a dome
Be sure to check out the rest of our NFL playoffs divisional round betting trends, which features interesting nuggets of information regarding the Baltimore Ravens, and the clash between the Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Spread Prediction
Buccaneers +3
It will be an NFC South rivalry showdown when the New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during divisional-round action in the NFL playoffs on Sunday evening. Can the Saints beat the Bucs for a third straight time this season? That is not an easy task for any division rival — especially not when the opponent is six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady.
It is true that New Orleans hammered Tampa Bay 38-3 in the most recent meeting, but this just isn’t the same Bucs squad that was on display back in early November. They have won five games in a row and have outscored opponents by a combined 81 points during this stretch; that’s 16.2 points per game for those counting. The Bucs have exceeded the 30-point mark in four of their last five, even against the stout defense of the Washington Football Team last weekend. Brady has 16 touchdown passes compared to only one interception during the winning streak.
The Saints really haven’t been the same since Drew Brees’ rib injury in Week 10. They have lost only twice since then, but it has not been overly encouraging — they haven’t defeated anyone with a winning record since that Week 9 victory over Tampa Bay. In the playoffs, give me a red-hot Brady over a close-to-retirement Brees any day of the week.
Tampa Bay is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after gaining more than 350 yards of total offense in its previous outing. The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six against opponents with winning records and 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff home games. Take the Bucs and the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Over/Under Prediction
Over 51.5
That’s not to say that Brees is going to get completely shut down, even though Tampa Bay boasts the No. 6 overall defense in the NFL and No. 1 against the run. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is rounding into form and found the endzone for the first time this season while going for 73 yards on five catches against Chicago last weekend. For the Bucs, both Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin have five touchdowns in the past four contests. New Orleans star defensive end Trey Hendrickson missed last week’s game and is questionable for this one. I expect this to be an appropriate shootout between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
The over is 22-9 in the Buccaneers’ last 31 overall, 25-9 in their last 34 on the road, and 10-1 in their last 11 against the NFC South. It is also 4-1 in the Saints’ last five against opponents with winning records. Additionally, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the two teams and 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last five trips to New Orleans. Look for this one to go over the total.
Spread and over/under analysis by Ricky Dimon.
Free NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Picks and Predictions
Be sure to check out our full-game previews for every matchup in the divisional round:
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
- Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
We’ve also got plenty of expert articles to make sure you’re as informed as possible before making your divisional round bets:
- 2021 NFL Playoff Schedule – Divisional Round Games, Predictions, and Where to Watch
- Divisional round breakdown: Packers offense vs. Rams defense
- Divisional round breakdown: How the Browns can pull off the upset against the Chiefs
- Which underdogs have the best chance to pull off an upset in the divisional round?
- NFL Playoffs divisional round money line four-team parlay (+741)
- Bet $1, Win $100 if the team you bet on wins their NFL Playoffs game!
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