Ricky Dimon
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoyed 3 years of success with Tom Brady at quarterback, including a Super Bowl triumph. Now they probably pay the price of rebuilding. Brady has retired, so head coach Todd Bowles is likely rolling with Baker Mayfield under center. Regardless of age, it’s safe to say that going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is a bit of a downgrade.
Will the pirate ship sink in 2023, or can it stay somewhat afloat? Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to be made on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers breakdown
2022 record: 8-9
2022 ATS record: 4-12-1
2022 O/U record: 6-11
Key players in: Baker Mayfield (QB), Greg Gaines (DT), Matt Feiler (G), Chase Edmonds (RB)
Key players out: Tom Brady (QB), Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT), Sean Bunting (CB), Mike Edwards (S), Donovan Smith (OT), Keanu Neal (S), Scotty Miller (WR)
2023 NFL Draft class: Calijah Kancey (DT), Cody Mauch (OT), YaYa Diaby (DE), SirVocea Dennis (LB), Payne Durham (TE), Josh Hayes (CB), Trey Palmer (WR), Jose Ramirez (LB)
Head over to the Pickswise NFL futures guide for odds and predictions on various betting markets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 NFL season odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl odds
The Buccaneers are +9000 to win Super Bowl LVIII. That puts them ahead of only the Colts, Cardinals and Texans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC Championship odds
Tampa Bay is +4500 to win the NFC, tied for second to last with the Rams (Arizona is +10000).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC South odds
At +800, the Buccaneers are the longshot in the NFC South. They trail the Saints (+120), Falcons (+215) and Panthers (+400).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win total odds
The Buccaneers’ win quota is 6.5 games, with the under priced as a -140 favorite and the over coming in with +120 odds. They are +500 to finish with exactly 6 victories and also +500 to finish with 7.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 schedule
Week 1: at Minnesota Vikings
Week 2: vs Chicago Bears
Week 3: vs Philadelphia Eagles (Monday)
Week 4: at New Orleans Saints
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: vs Detroit Lions
Week 7: vs Atlanta Falcons
Week 8: at Buffalo Bills (Thursday)
Week 9: at Houston Texans
Week 10: vs Tennessee Titans
Week 11: at San Francisco 49ers
Week 12: at Indianapolis Colts
Week 13: vs Carolina Panthers
Week 14: at Atlanta Falcons
Week 15: at Green Bay Packers
Week 16: vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 17: vs New Orleans Saints
Week 18: at Carolina Panthers
We’ll have NFL picks for EVERY matchup of the 2023 season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022 season recap
The Buccaneers weren’t any good last season – but they were good enough to win the moribund NFC South. They pretty much had the division title handed to them on a silver platter by Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans (and most specifically New Orleans). The key moment came in Week 13, when Brady and company trailed the Saints 16-3 with less than 4 minutes remaining. Thanks in part to a flurry of gaffes by the visitors (mainly Mark Ingram running out of bounds), Brady engineered a comeback for a last-second 17-16 victory. That helped the Buccaneers clinch the division even before the final week of the regular season despite finishing with a losing record.
Read our NFC Championship predictions and best bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 NFL season predictions
As the odds indicate, Tampa Bay is expected to be one of the worst teams in the entire NFL. The Buccaneers were already bad last year and that was with the GOAT at quarterback. Well, Baker Mayfield is definitely not the GOAT. Is there anything to like about this team in 2023, or is it bad news all around?
Here are a couple of my predictions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season.
Best bet: Calijah Kancey to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (+2200)
The bottom line is I don’t love any play on the Buccaneers as a whole. I think they will be bad, but the odds also think that and there really isn’t any market to exploit. I like under 6.5 wins to a considerable extent, but -140 juice isn’t enticing in the least. As such, I’m diving into the player awards market with Kancey to win this rookie honor. The former Pittsburgh star ran the fastest 40 time for a defensive tackle at the NFL Combine since 2006 and this is what ESPN had to say about his year-one prospects in Tampa Bay: “High-impact Day 1 starter. Kancey is a fantastic pass-rusher with awesome take-off quickness, which could make him Tampa Bay’s next Gerald McCoy-type 3-technique. He’ll be a rookie starter with double-digit sack potential.” I’m more than happy to take a shot with lofty +2200 odds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers season record predictions
The defense has a chance to remain better than average especially if Kancey makes an immediate impact, but even if that happens there is no reason for overall optimism. Brady is gone and Mayfield does not inspire any confidence. I see this team staying under its 6.5 win quota, but perhaps without any room to spare. An exact record of 6-11 has decent value at +500 odds.
Find out which players we are targeting for our NFL MVP best bets
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Pickswise is the home of free expert NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the 2022 NFL season.
