Andrew Ortenberg
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With sports leagues still shut down due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, NFL futures are one of the few things keeping us all sane. Today we will be taking a look at an individual player prop with a lot of value, and that’s the over on Drew Lock’s passing yards for the 2020 season.
Draftkings’ sportsbook has the total at 3375.5 for the young Denver Broncos quarterback, and that’s disrespectfully low. I’m not that high on Lock and the Broncos overall, but this is a great bet. For starters, Denver has made major upgrades to their offense this offseason. They greatly improved the offensive line in free agency, and added receivers with each of their first two picks in the draft.
With Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Noah Fant at his disposal, Lock suddenly has a very talented group of young weapons. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay are both great at catching passes out of the backfield as well.
The Missouri product took over down the stretch last season, and he showed plenty of flashes in his five games under center. He’s got a lot of swagger and toughness, averaging 11.4 yards per attempt with three touchdowns in his first career road start while torching the Texans.
But no matter how you feel about Lock, the value is in the number. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the only signal-caller in the league to start all 16 games and throw for fewer yards than this total, and in fact he was the only one to throw for less than 3,700.
Denver was a run-first team last season but it looks like they are trying to get more modern, and their moves this offseason certainly indicate a desire to improve the passing game. Denver’s defense will also get a bit worse due to the departures of guys like Chris Harris Jr., Derek Wolfe, and Will Parks, so they’ll have to play in faster and higher-scoring games.
With a full offseason under his belt Lock should only be more confident when the 2020 season rolls around, and as long as he stays healthy he is going to easily eclipse this number.
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