Andrew Ortenberg
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One of the most interesting teams to watch in the 2020 NFL season will be the Arizona Cardinals, and Kyler Murray is the main reason why. The former first overall pick showed plenty of flashes as a rookie, and I think he’s poised for a second-year leap. As such, one of my favorite prop bets for the coming year is the over on Murray’s passing yards.
You can get 3850.5 at Draftkings’ sportsbook right now, and that number seems really low to me. Murray threw for 3,722 yards as a rookie, so he would only need to see very modest improvement to cash this over. Even if Murray somehow didn’t improve in year two, the situation around him has gotten so much better that it wouldn’t matter.
The Cardinals pulled off one of the best trades in NFL history this offseason, bringing in DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans and giving up only David Johnson’s bloated contract and a draft pick. Hopkins is arguably the best receiver in the game, and Murray now has an abundance of weapons at his disposal.
His top receiving trio now includes Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk, enough to make any quarterback jealous. Hopkins has produced with every signal-caller he’s ever played with, and the attention he’ll draw from defenses should allow the 23-year-old Kirk to blossom.
Kenyan Drake leads a high-upside backfield, and assuming they can stay healthy they’ll have a solid offensive line. Kliff Kingsbury is as exciting of an offensive mind as you can find, and I can’t wait to see what he does with a full year of NFL coaching experience under his belt.
I think Murray could follow a similar trajectory to Lamar Jackson, who struggled to put it all together while showing plenty of flashes as a rookie, before breaking out as a sophomore and winning MVP. Relatedly, I also like Murray as a darkhorse MVP candidate.
The Cardinals’ defense still has major question marks, which should mean they’re playing in a lot of fast-paced high scoring games yet again, which would be great news for this prop. Kingsbury loves to throw the ball, and Murray managed to put up 3722 yards despite only averaging 6.9 yards per attempt. When he gets the efficiency bump that he absolutely should given the circumstances, he’ll easily hit the over on this prop.
Want more expert NFL picks throughout the 2020 season? Make sure to check out our NFL picks page for breakdowns and picks for every regular season game.
