Ricky Dimon
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No game in American sports inspires more betting than the Super Bowl. That is why it’s so important for oddsmakers to get the lines correct to encourage equal wagering on each side.
Super Bowl LVI features the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals, one of the more improbable matchups in recent Super Bowl history — a lot more unlikely than last year’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs contest, that’s for sure. Los Angeles has opened as a -4 favorite; the opening total is 48.5.
The 4-point spread is about average for a Super Bowl, although it is the largest in the past four years. The previous three games’ matchups all had lines of a field goal or less. This year’s 48.5 total is on the low side — especially compared to the previous three Super Bowls — but it’s nowhere near the lowest ever. Let’s take a look at recent Super Bowl history and also go back all the way to Super Bowl I to learn more about the history of spreads.
The last 10 Super Bowls
A 4-point spread doesn’t automatically mean the game is going to be close, of course. Just look at the three most recent Super Bowls. All were decided by double-digits (including one involving the Rams!) despite all having spreads of no more than 3 points. Not a single one of the last 10 title tilts has had a spread greater than 4.5 points and still more than half of the games (6 to be exact) have finished with double-digit margins.
Of the last 10 Super Bowls, half featured totals at least 4.5 points higher than the Rams-Bengals number. But this year’s total is higher than the other half. There hasn’t been any number in the 49 to 52.5 range in the past decade. It’s been kind of an all-or-nothing proposition when it comes to expected points.
2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Kansas City Chiefs 9 (Line: Chiefs -3, Total: 55)
2019: Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 20 (Line: Chiefs -2, Total: 53)
2018: New England Patriots 13, Los Angeles Rams 3 (Line: Patriots -2.5, Total: 58)
2017: Philadelphia Eagles 41, New England Patriots 33 (Line: Patriots -4.5, Total: 48)
2016: New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28 (Line: Patriots -3, Total: 58.5)
2015: Denver Broncos 24, Carolina Panthers 10 (Line: Panthers -4.5, Total: 43.5)
2014: New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24 (Line: Patriots -1, Total: 47.5)
2013: Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8 (Line: Broncos -2.5, Total: 47.5)
2012: Baltimore Ravens 34, San Francisco 49ers 21 (Line: 49ers -4.5, Total: 48)
2011: New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17 (Line: Patriots -3, Total: 53)
Super Bowl extremes
A handful of teams have been favored by two touchdowns, but only once has the Super Bowl spread reached 18 points. That came in Super Bowl XXIX, when the San Francisco 49ers were -18 favorites over the San Diego Chargers. Steve Young and Jerry Rice had no trouble leading San Francisco to an easy win and cover via a 49-26 decision.
At the other extreme, three Super Bowls have kicked off with -1 spreads. The Cowboys gave 1 point to the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V (Baltimore won 16-13). In Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots were -1 favorites over the Seahawks (New England survived a 28-24 thriller). And two years ago the Chiefs went off as -1 favorites over the Niners after opening at -2.
The Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons’ total was 58.5 and it leads the way among 13 Super Bowls with totals in the 50s. At the other extreme, four games have been set at 33 — only one since 1974, as the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants collided at the end of the 2000 season and the Ravens rolled 34-7.
Rams vs Bengals
The Rams are playing in their fifth Super Bowl. They are 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in four previous appearances. In Super Bowl XIV they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-19 as +10.5 underdog. The franchise’s lone Super Bowl victory came at the end of the 1999 season, memorably beating the Tennessee Titans 23-16 to push a -7 spread. That was followed by a pair of losses to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots; 20-17 as massive -14 favorites in Super Bowl XXXVI and 13-3 as +2.5 underdogs in Super Bowl LIII.
The Bengals are back in the Super Bowl for the third time, and that’s not the only good news. They aren’t playing the San Francisco 49ers! Cincinnati was a +1 underdog at the end of the 1981 season and lost to San Francisco 26-21. The same matchup took place seven years later, when the 49ers triumphed again via a 20-16 decision. Despite another loss, the Bengals managed to cover as +7 underdogs.
Free Super Bowl LVI Picks and Predictions
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