Ricky Dimon
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Sure, there are plenty of wild Super Bowl prop bets out there that are always tons of fun. But aside from the line and total for the game, the simplest (that’s not to say easy; just simple) bet is on the MVP. At this point in the season—you know, like, with one game left—football aficionados know their stuff. You know which players are capable of certain things and which ones aren’t. You probably even have a grasp on the intricacies of certain matchups.
Nobody can guarantee who will win MVP of this Super Bowl or any other Super Bowl, but it isn’t hard to find what looks like great value on one or more of your favorite guys.
Let’s take a look at the favorites for Super Bowl LIV between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers before breaking down the best bets.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (+120)
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers (+300)
Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers (+550)
George Kittle, TE, 49ers (+1000)
Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs (+1800)
Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers (+1800)
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+2000)
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs (+2000)
Super Bowl Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes (+125)
The 2018 NFL MVP fell off his otherworldly pace from the previous season, but he still threw for 4,031 yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions. And that was in 14 games instead of 16 because of a dislocated kneecap. Heading into Super Bowl LIV (check out our free expert predictions), Mahomes has completed 46 of 70 passes for 615 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs through two playoff outings. He has also rushed for 106 yards and a score.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers (+300)
Since the 2004 season (Super Bowl XXVIII), 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. I don’t care how little the 49ers utilized Garoppolo during the NFC Championship, he still has plenty of value at +300 simply because he lines up under center. Plus, you can be sure Garoppolo will do more than what was asked of him two weeks ago. San Francisco jumped out to a 27-0 second-quarter lead over Green Bay, so they had to do little more than hand the ball off to running back Raheem Mostert the rest of the way. That’s not gonna happen against Kansas City.
Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers (+550)
Mostert went absolutely wild in San Francisco’s blowout of the Packers. He got 29 carriers and turned those into 220 yards and four touchdowns. The 49ers are going to pass it more than eight times this Sunday, but Mostert will still be a huge factor—perhaps the x-factor—and his confidence has to be at an all-time high. His team’s best defense against Mahomes and company is offense, meaning Mostert will be running the ball early and often to keep the clock moving.
Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs (+1800)
Williams opened at +1600, which was already an intriguing number. He has since moved to +1800, so it would not be unwise to jump all over this. In fact, from a value standpoint this is the best of all MVP bets. Perhaps the inflated odds are because the running back position is not exactly the focal point of the Chiefs’ offense. Still, Williams has made the most of his opportunities during these playoffs. He has found the endzone four times through two games.
Prediction
Patrick Mahomes
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is going to win NFL MVP, but based on Mahomes’ work over the past two seasons plus his performance so far in these playoffs make it plainly obvious that he is the best player in football. Even more importantly when it comes to a game of this magnitude, the former Texas Tech signal-caller quite simply has the clutch gene. With a flurry of incredible plays, Mahomes led Kansas City back from a 24-0 deficit against Houston in the divisional round and from a 17-7 hole against Tennessee in the AFC Championship.
