Sam Avellone
As a general rule of thumb, the championship game of any bettable sport is going to have the sharpest lines. Oddsmakers have an entire season’s worth of data to feed their algorithms, which spit out the most efficient lines for a game between a couple of the best teams in the sport. This generally gives us less of an edge in the traditional betting markets like spread and total, but what if we used that information in a different way? What if we tried to use the market efficiency to hit big on a prop bet?
Find out our expert Chiefs vs Eagles predictions for the big game, along with our Super Bowl 59 Same Game Parlay picks at HUGE +1449 odds
How to bet on the Super Bowl 59 final score
Legalized sports betting in the United States has paved the way for a wide selection of exotic prop markets, one of those markets being the exact final score. As you could imagine, the odds are pretty juicy when betting final score props given the wide range of outcomes. If you hit, you can hit big – which is the type of fun I like to have when betting the Super Bowl.
Am I advocating for you to start betting exact final score props on a Tuesday night basketball game? No, but I have had some success in betting exact final score props on championship games in other sports like college basketball and college football by utilizing the understanding of market efficiency, identifying trends in previous championship games, considering the on-field matchup, letting the spread and total guide me to a range of outcomes and – most importantly – getting a little lucky. In fact, I cashed an exact score bet on the CFB National Championship game at +48000 odds last month, so let’s cash another one here!
If you’re looking to lock in some novelty prop bets, find out our Super Bowl coin toss pick, national anthem predictions, halftime show best bets and our Gatorade Shower pick at +240 odds!
Super Bowl 59 final score predictions and best bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
- Chiefs 24 – Eagles 23 (+13000)
- Chiefs 22 – Eagles 19 (+41000)
- Chiefs 27 – Eagles 25 (+48000)
- Chiefs 25 – Eagles 23 (+50000)
- Chiefs 31 – Eagles 29 (+50000)
Fortunately for us, we have an exact data point from 2 years ago for this specific matchup, as the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII thanks to a 17-point 4th quarter. This time around, I don’t think we will see as much scoring. The Chiefs and the Eagles went into Super Bowl 57 as 2 of the top 3 red-zone offenses (TD only) in the league, and they were both top 6 in yards per play that year as well – which is simply not the case this year. Going into Super Bowl 59, the Eagles are 12th in red-zone scoring and the Chiefs are 22nd, and neither ranks better than 10th in yards per play. Defensively, both teams are top 4 in points-per-game allowed, in addition to top 12 in DVOA and yards per play allowed.
All things considered, I’m expecting a 1-3 point win for the Chiefs, with a lower scoring output than the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl. I’m not ruling out odd scores either. In fact, I’m targeting them, as 2-point conversions are not abnormal for either of these teams. Overall, you can find 5 final scores that I feel fit the mold for Super Bowl 59 (I’m risking no more than half a unit total on this, so about 0.05-0.1 unit per pick).
You can bet any of our Super Bowl final score predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $200 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.
