Andrew Wilsher
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The Super Bowl is finally here, and — as is tradition — there are all kinds of different bets you can make on the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. From standard side and total bets to wagering on novelty props, including things like the coin toss and color of the Gatorade shower, the Super Bowl has all kinds of ways to enhance your excitement. That even extends to the opening kickoff.
Much like the coin toss and the length of the national anthem, betting on whether or not the opening kickoff will be a touchback gives bettors the opportunity to secure an early win on their Super Bowl wagers if picking correctly. So, yes or no — will the Super Bowl opening kickoff result in a touchback? Let’s break it all down.
Read our full San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 predictions
Super Bowl Opening Kickoff to be a Touchback Odds
These are the current Super Bowl odds on the opening kickoff to be a touchback, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (1st), DraftKings Sportsbook (2nd) and BetMGM (3rd):
- Yes: -330 / -310 / -375 (last year -160)
- No: +235 / +245 / +250 (last year +124)
As highlighted above, yes there will be a touchback is the current heavy favorite. Over the past couple of years, we have seen “yes” become more and more of a favorite, having been so in the Chiefs vs Eagles game last year at -160 odds. In the year before that in Rams vs Bengals, “no” was actually the favorite at -118″.
Despite the heavy favoritism for “yes,” don’t be lured into thinking it’s a sure thing. “Yes” was the heavy favorite at -305 in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl while “no” was +230, and the kickoff was not a touchback.
Get the Super Bowl 58 best bets from 4 of our expert NFL handicappers — they’re 64-43 this season!
Super Bowl Opening Kickoff to be a Touchback Picks and Predictions
Opening Kickoff not to result in a touchback (+250)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
In the 2023 NFL season, 73% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. This is largely due to a new rule introduced by the NFL that all fair catches will now automatically bring the ball to the 25-yard line. That means that even if the ball is kicked short and caught, it can still be ruled a touchback. In the 2022 season, around 60% of NFL kickoffs resulted in a touchback, so there has been a sharp increase and that is reflected in the odds.
During the regular season, 83.33% of Kansas City’s kickoffs resulted in a touchback — which ranks them 10th in the league. However, only 62.39% of San Francisco’s kickoffs were touchbacks — which puts them down in 25th. So in order to have a netter chance of cashing “no,” we’ll be pulling for the 49ers to be kicking off.
Furthermore, only 3 of the last 10 Super Bowl kickoffs resulted in a touchback, and part of that reason was that kickers failed to kick the ball the necessary distance to force a touchback. There is a reason why kickers find it so tough in the Super Bowl.
Before every regular-season game in the NFL, each team is given some time to break in the game ball which effectively makes it more kickable. If you’ve ever kicked a football, you will likely agree with me that it becomes easier to kick after a while than when you first start using it. Essentially, NFL regular-season footballs can be kicked into a shape that makes it more aerodynamically friendly and gives it more air time once the game begins.
However, this does not apply to the Super Bowl. Every ball used for the opening kickoff in the big game is immediately taken off the field and displayed in the Pro Football Hall of Fame museum. This means that it is not kicked prior to the kickoff either and the ball is literally used for that one play. Former punter Pat McAfee has referred to the Super Bowl’s opening kickoff ball as being the worst and toughest an NFL kicker will encounter in their career.
Although kicks that don’t go the necessary distance can now still be ruled touchbacks, there is also the incentive of the returner to bring the ball out since they are effectively being given a head start in returning the ball. It does feel like a bit of a longshot, but oddsmakers may be compensating too much for the rule change and I believe there is value to be had in betting on the kickoff not to be a touchback at +250 odds.
