Andrew Wilsher
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It all comes down to this. Super Bowl 58 is officially upon us, and this Sunday night the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will battle it out for the honor to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs are looking to go back-to-back after edging the Eagles last year, while the 49ers are out to justify their tag as favorites. We’ll have plenty of superstars on the field, with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all suiting up. Each of those players and plenty more are available to bet on in the form of an NFL player prop bet.
Let’s dive into our experts’ best player prop picks for Super Bowl 58.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC Over 36.5 pass attempts (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mahomes averages 40 pass attempts per game in losses this season and has gone over this mark in 5 of 6 losses in the regular season. Am I tipping my cap as to which way I’m leaning on this game? Maybe. But the public is all over the Chiefs and the line continues to move in favor of the 49ers going from -2 to -2.5 in some books. I won’t personally bet against Mahomes from a sides standpoint, but this line is enticing. The 49ers will do a good job controlling the clock with their offense and it will amplify the importance of each KC drive. They cannot run the risk of going 3-and-out in these scenarios, as SF is outstanding at playing with a lead. As a result, Reid will (rightfully) put the game on Mahomes shoulders. This is a good number regardless of the game’s outcome, but I like it more given the line movement we are seeing.
Read our full San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 predictions
Travis Kelce, TE, KC Under 6.5 receptions (+120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Understandably, people are going to be attracted to Kelce’s overs this week. He’s been on fire this postseason, is Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target, and it would be fitting that he has a big game with his superstar girlfriend watching on from the stands. But for me, all that does is set up a great contrarian play where we can get some great value by taking the under.
First things first, we are getting this prop at plus-money odds even though Kelce has had 7 receptions or more in just 2 of his last 9 games. Admittedly, both of those games have come in these playoffs, but this 49ers defense will know that Kelce will be Kansas City’s key to success through the air and will do all they can to shut it down. They just gave up 9 receptions to Sam LaPorta last week too, so I have no doubt it’ll be an area they will be desperate to improve. Overall, the 49ers allowed the 4th-fewest passing yards per attempt during the regular season and registered the joint-most interceptions. This team is no slouch.
This pick isn’t to say that Kelce won’t have a big game. I do expect him to have a big game! But it’s more on the fact that this line is set way too high and there is a serious opportunity in getting under 6.5 receptions at plus-money odds. Kelce had games of 81, 83 and 91 receiving yards this season without hitting 7 receptions. In last year’s Super Bowl, he had 81 receiving yards and a touchdown, but only 6 receptions. All things considered, I’m happy rolling with the under here, and would also recommend sprinkling a little on a Same Game Parlay of Kelce under 6.5 receptions and over 71.5 receiving yards at +1074 odds with FanDuel.
Check out our NFL expert’s Super Bowl 58 49ers vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay at +700 odds
Deebo Samuel Over 2.5 rush attempts (-140) 1u
Deebo Samuel 5+ rush attempts (+375) 0.25u
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
In 11 career postseason games (really 10 since the one against GB he only played 14% of snaps), Samuel has hit this line in 8 of 11. Purdy being in his first Super Bowl further amplifies the need to get the ball into the hands of Kyle Shanahan’s playmakers to take some pressure off. This line will include any trick plays and backwards passes should the NFL be kind enough to grade them correctly. You can pivot to over 15.5 rush yards if the juice becomes too high for your liking, but this is the safer play.
Get the Super Bowl 58 best bets from 4 of our expert NFL handicappers — they’re 64-43 this season!
Rashee Rice over 66.5 receiving yards (-110) 1u
Rashee Rice 75+ receiving yards (+130) 0.5u
Rashee Rice 100+ receiving yards (+350) 0.25u
Rashee Rice 125+ receiving yards (+850) 0.1u
Lines available at Bet365 at time of publishing
The obvious choice on receiving yards is to bet on Kelce, but I rarely lean into the obvious. The 49ers were just carved up by Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown, so Mahomes & Co. have to be chomping at the bit to get at this defense. Nick Bosa has a favorable matchup against RT Jawaan Taylor, but I think that lends itself to Mahomes getting the ball out of his hands early. Kelce will have his moments, but he will be a focal point of this 49ers defense. Rice, on the other hand, may be the forgotten man. He is 2nd on the team to Kelce in terms of targets and receptions against zone coverage and first in reception rate. I love Rice in this game because he has done a great job finding soft spots in zone coverages as a rookie and turning up field for extra yards, as shown in his team leading 8.9 yards after catch per reception against zone defense.
