Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Out of the 57 Super Bowl MVPs in the league’s history, 31 have been quarterbacks (54%), 8 have been wide receivers (14%), and 7 have been running backs (12%). On the defensive/special teams’ side of this award, there have been 11 (19%), but as you can imagine, it takes a historic performance. The most all time? None other than Tom Brady with 5. Heading into this game, Patrick Mahomes already has one under his belt and would be the favorite should the Chiefs upset the Eagles.
The best way to play this market is to not put all of your eggs in one basket. I would obviously take one of the two QBs (based on who you think wins the game) for 0.5U. In addition to that, place 0.25U on an offensive player (non-QB) and a player on the other team so that you have action on both sides. Below are the 3 I’ll be playing as part of my Super Bowl Prop Bets.
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Super Bowl MVP Favorite
Patrick Mahomes (+140)
As you can tell, I’m leaning Kansas City to pull off the upset, and one of my Super Bowl Best Bets for who wins MVP is Patrick Mahomes. The QB is getting two weeks of rest for his high-ankle sprain is huge, and obviously being in this spot twice before plays a major role in my decision. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have had one of the best seasons in recent memory and they have clear advantages sprinkled throughout this game (playmakers, offensive line, secondary); but this moment can catch even the best off-guard in their first appearance. For me, the Mahomes/Andy Reid combo is the way to go. Although I mentioned it’s best to play your favorite at 0.5U, I’m going a full 1U on this because I do believe the Chiefs win this game.
If you believe the Eagles win, I’d be reluctant to tail Jalen Hurts (+115) as they have several playmakers who can win this award with big games. As we saw in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles can win games without Hurts looking overly impressive. Hurts has the least value for me in this entire market.
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Which non-quarterbacks could win Super Bowl MVP?
Travis Kelce (+900)
A tight end has never won this award before. There also has never been a tight end like Travis Kelce in NFL history. And that’s not a shot at Gronk, but you can start to make the case of Kelce over Gronkowski after tying Jerry Rice for most 100-yard receiving playoff games. Anytime you break a Jerry Rice record, you deserve your flowers. The path to Kelce winning this award is clear: 100 yards receiving, 2 TD (or game-winning) and 9+ receptions.
He has three 2 TD performances, seven 100-yard receiving games, and five 9+ reception games in the postseason. This is all in his wheelhouse. Had he scored in Super Bowl 55, I think he would have already won this award.
AJ Brown (+1600)
We HAVE to have someone on the Eagles in this spot in case the game does not go our way. I mentioned before that Hurts carries the least amount of value for me in this market, but AJ Brown makes up for it. There has been a trend over the last 18 years: 5 wide receivers have won Super Bowl MVP in that span. The most recent being last year in Cooper Kupp. The “trick” to getting this award as a wide receiver is to have the game-winning touchdown. Cooper Kupp, Julian Edelman, Santonio Holmes, and Hines Ward all had game-winning TDs (Deion Branch tied the Super Bowl record with 11 receptions).
AJ Brown can be that iteration of this award for the Eagles, especially if this is a high-scoring game. He’s been quiet this postseason…a little too quiet. Brown has the potential to put up an impressive stat line and steal this award away from Hurts, who just proved he can look pedestrian in an Eagles victory.
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