Caleb Wilfinger
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The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football in this Week 11 matchup. In recent years, the Chargers have been able to keep things very competitive against Patrick Mahomes and company, but this AFC West showdown has lost a bit of its luster this year. Los Angeles is struggling on offense, while the Chargers defense has not performed as expected. Nonetheless, they should be healthier than recent weeks for this important contest.
Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this matchup, so let’s break it all down.
Be sure not to miss any of our NFL picks for Week 11 — we’re 83-64-3 on spreads this season (+24 units!)
NFL Week 11 Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction
Historically, meetings between the Chiefs and Chargers are close games. Don’t expect much different in this contest, as the Chargers are expecting multiple players back for this pivotal AFC matchup. Kansas City is also coming off a bit of a fortunate cover against the Jaguars, while Los Angeles were just defeated in San Francisco. This should be a fascinating contest, so let’s get into our expert’s predictions.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Chiefs -6, Chargers +6
Total Points Over/Under: 50 points
Money Line Odds: Chiefs -250, Chargers +200
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Be sure to read the rest of our NFL picks for Week 11:
- Eagles vs Colts predictions
- Lions vs Giants predictions
- Browns vs Bills predictions
- Bengals vs Steelers predictions
- Cowboys vs Vikings predictions
- Jets vs Patriots predictions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Chiefs and Chargers.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers point spread pick: Chargers +6 (-110)
Be sure to check out our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Over/Under totals pick: Over 50 (-110)
This number will likely tick up a half point or so if Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both return to the lineup. The overarching trends point in the other direction here, including scoring being down across the league and divisional unders hitting at a historic rate through the first 10 weeks (31-16, 66%). I was impressed with the Chiefs’ defense against a good Jaguars front on Sunday, holding the run game in check and allowing just 5.2 yards per play overall. But the Chargers’ run game has the 4th-lowest success rate in the NFL this season (35.9%) and I just don’t see them leaning on it too much in this matchup unless they are having early success.
Kansas City’s defense has been shaky against the pass in 2022, allowing a 101.9 opponent rating and 19 passing touchdowns. I can absolutely see this game quickly turn into a shootout if Williams/Allen are relatively healthy. Brandon Staley’s defense did a good job keeping Jimmy G and the 49ers’ running game on Sunday night, especially in the red zone — but this Chiefs offense is just a completely different animal and I don’t anticipate Patrick Mahomes settling for 3 field goals inside the 10-yard-line this week. Field goals are always the death of overs, so red-zone efficiency for both teams will be key if this has any chance of sailing past a relatively high total.
Get all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 11 action.
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