Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Monday Night Football’s matchup probably looked good on paper back in August. Unfortunately, that is not the case as we sit here in November. The Steelers are traveling to Indianapolis to take on the Colts (-2.5) in what couldn’t be a more lopsided coaching matchup. Mike Tomlin is the second-most experienced coach in the league behind Bill Belicheck, and Jeff Saturday is still learning how the headset works. From an injury perspective, the Steelers with be without 3rd down RB, Jaylen Warren and CB Akhello Witherspoon. The Colts will be without DE Kwity Paye and likely TE Kylen Granson. DT DeForest Buckner is questionable at this time.
Don’t forget to check out our Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts preview
Diontae Johnson Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Johnson has struggled since Pickett took over as the starting QB in Week 5. He’s only hit this line in 2/6 games, and his 1.11 yards per route run ranks 7th lowest amongst qualified WRs, according to PFF. The Colts defensively are quietly one of the better units in the league. They rank top 10 in coverage and tackling, according to PFF, and 9th in DVOA for WR2s. Indianapolis also ranks top 3 in yards per reception to opposing WRs and 1st in yards per game to opposing WRs. Johnson has struggled to pick up yardage in big chunks, only hauling in 3 receptions of 20+ yards all season on 17 targets. He does most of his work in the 0–9-yard range, where he sees 46% of his targets. The YAC/REC is alarming as well, he’s only averaging 1.8 yards after catch. This game will be a battle in the trenches and with an O/U set at 39.5, I can’t see a negative game script that would require Johnson to accumulate more than 5 receptions. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts predictions
Pat Freiermuth Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Where Johnson is lacking, Freiermuth has picked up the slack since Pickett became the starting QB. Since Week 5, he’s this in 3/5 games, but seen 7+ targets in 4 straight games. The Penn State alumni has cemented himself in the discussion as a top tight end in the league when you start to deep dive on his season. Freiermuth’s 11 yards per reception ranks 6th amongst qualified TEs and his aDOT is 3rd, only behind Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews. What makes this line appealing is Freiermuth’s ability to pick up yards in big chunks, he’s had a 20+ yard reception in 6/9 games this year. From a matchup perspective, the Colts are 27th in DVOA vs TE’s, but middle of the pack in terms of yards/rec and targets. The line itself varies from book to book, I’ve seen it as high as 46.5, but comfortable at the 43.5 we found. 1U
Don’t miss our Steelers vs Colts Same Game Parlay at +601 odds
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Najee Harris +115
Alec Pierce +300
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