South Point 400 NASCAR preview and best bets: Denny Hamlin gets the win in Sin City

Las Vegas! The betting capital of the world and the site for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series playoff race — the South Point 400. It’s the second race of the year at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the first being the fourth race of the year, but this one has a lot more on the line.

For the 8 drivers that are still alive in the 2022 Playoffs, this is the first chance to lock themselves into the Championship race in Phoenix. That’s a huge advantage.

We’ll have NASCAR picks and predictions all season long!

Las Vegas Motor Speedway layout and betting strategies

The track in Sin City is a 1.5-mile track with moderately steep banking and asphalt that doesn’t particularly wear out the tires. It’s also known to be a track position track. Aren’t all tracks track position tracks? Nope, not necessarily. This one gets that moniker because passing here can be tough, at least it was previously. In the early-season race here, the Next Gen cars did improve passing including passing for the lead. If this race resembles the March race at Vegas, we could see a lot of passing for the lead which will bring a lot more cars into play for betting.

For betting strategies here, we’re looking at not only what drivers did at this track earlier in the year but also what they’ve done at similar tracks the rest of the way. Vegas is considered a high-speed intermediate which draws comparisons to Kansas, Michigan, and Charlotte mainly. So if we’re betting finish position props or head-to-head matchups, looking at those results, along with obviously what they do on track this weekend at practice is key.

South Point 400 outright winners

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Denny Hamlin (+550)

The last time the Cup Series was in Vegas Hamlin said he had the fastest car and guess what, he did based on true speed metrics. He’s had the fastest car at most intermediate tracks this year despite the lack of results. Bringing that kind of speed this week is very likely and speed at Vegas is a sure fire way to contend for the win. There’s also the fact that he’s toward the bottom in playoff points right now so locking his way in the first chance he gets would be a huge weight off his shoulders.

Tyler Reddick (+900)

Another guy with elite speed on the intermediates? Reddick. He won at Texas a couple of races ago and had the fastest car at both Kansas races, despite tire issues ruining his runs. While he might not be in the playoffs any longer, there is incentive for him to stick it, so to speak, to RCR for their decision to release him from his contract a year early. In these playoffs we’ve also seen non-playoff drivers win more races than playoff drivers have by a count of 4-2. Presuming the 8-car team shows up with the elite speed once more, and can avoid tire issues, he’s going to be up front come late in the race on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. & Kyle Busch (+1200)

We’re giving two drivers in this one? We sure are. It’d be splitting hairs to pick one over the other at this point so why not go with both in the recommendation. Earlier this year at Vegas both of these guys were contending for the win before a late-race caution shuffled the running order and kept them from winning. If we look at the last four races at Vegas, they rank first and third in average finish and both have started in the top-12 seven times (out of 11 races) this year at this distance. So the speed is there, the results here are there, and there’s also narratives for both. Truex is looking for his first win of the year to keep his streak of seasons with a win going and Busch is at his home track, looking to get a last win at JGR on the weekend his brother is likely to announce retirement.

Joey Logano (+1500)

This is a weekend that doesn’t seem like a Logano weekend. And that’s precisely what makes it a Logano weekend. That’s been the case all year. He shows up with speed when least expected and especially at intermediates. He’s the driver, regardless of make, with the best average finish over the 11 intermediate races this year (not including Atlanta’s plate races). That kind of consistency is too hard to ignore. While he’s been strong at Homestead and Martinsville, this is likely his best shot to clinch a spot in the Championship.

Long shot: Chase Briscoe (+3000)

Here’s the long shot bet of the weekend because hey, everyone loves hitting long shots in Vegas. There’s been a lot of noise about how Briscoe got help from a teammate last weekend to make this round of the playoffs. So why not feed off that? He’ll be on a mission to prove that he should be in this round on his own accord, not to mention he dominated at Phoenix earlier in the year and wants a shot to get back for the title. The results on intermediates have been up and down all year for Briscoe, but he does have two top-fives, including on the last one raced on — Texas. In the March race here, he started P4 before getting caught up in someone else’s tire issue. If he can start in the top-10 and hold it, he’s got a shot to be a Vegas surprise.

Best Prop Bets for South Point 400

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Saturday bet: Christopher Bell To Win Pole (+600)

Bell has the best average starting position at intermediate tracks this year. He’s also one of three drivers to post two poles (out of 11 races) at this distance. If we dive a bit deeper into the numbers, he’s started top-four eight times in those 11 races with seven of those being top-three and with four being top-two starts. That’s enough to favor him for the pole next to mention he’s coming off a win last week to bring momentum this weekend. Tyler Reddick (+700) is also intriguing as the driver with the second-best average starting position at similar tracks this year including a P2 and P1 in the two Kansas races. Reddick has also made the final round of qualifying 9-of-11 times at intermediates.

Toyota race winning manufacturer (+150)

It shouldn’t come as a shock that we’re leaning this way giving the outright winners above. Picking Hamlin, MTJ, and Busch to have shots at winning and Bell to be on pole suggests that I really like the Toyotas’ speed this weekend. This has been Toyotas’ strength this year with four Toyota drivers ranking in the top-10 of average finish at this distance and all six Camrys in the top-12 of Green Flag Speed at these tracks this year as well.

Kyle Larson top Chevrolet (+450)

Over the 11 intermediate tracks this year, Larson, by far, has the best average finish of any Chevy driver in the field. While he’s not in the playoffs anymore, he’s likely to be upset about how the ROVAL race ended last week being slowed up intentionally and will be out to prove a point. In the last three Vegas races he’s run, he’s finished P1, P10, P2 respectively. It’s too hard to turn down him having the fourth-best odds to be top Chevy while being the best average finishing Chevy this year.

Joey Logano top Ford (+275)

Like Larson, Logano is the Ford driver with the best average finish at intermediates this year. In fact, he’s the driver, regardless of manufacturer, with the best average finish at this track type. He had speed back in March at Vegas and has been a guy to show up with race wins and good finishes when least expected — like this weekend. We don’t even need him to win to hit this, we just need him to be the first blue oval to see the checkered flag.

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