Andrew Ortenberg
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Best bet- Seahawks under 8.5 wins
Worst bet- Seahawks to make the playoffs +130
Overall, the Seattle Seahawks had a pretty successful season in 2018. They were coming off a disappointing 2017 campaign, and they rebounded to win ten games and make the playoffs. The team hadn’t had a real running game since Marshawn Lynch left, but that all changed in 2018. The offensive line made major strides, and running back Chris Carson had a breakout year.
The Seahawks went from having the league’s worst rushing attack to having the best, and they became a run-heavy team. Ultimately, they might’ve become too run-heavy. New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was widely criticized for his stubbornness and refusal to let Russell Wilson throw the ball on early downs in the team’s playoff loss to the Cowboys.
Schottenheimer is back for 2019, and it’s unclear if he’ll adjust at all. For the most part the Seahawks will be running it back without too many major changes. That being said, they did lose a major piece when Doug Baldwin was forced to retire due to injuries. Baldwin had been the team’s top wideout the past handful of seasons, and they’ll miss him sorely.
The other most notable departure was the loss of All-Pro safety Earl Thomas in free agency, but he missed most of last season due to injury anyway.
The Seahawks have been one of the league’s best and most stable franchises over the past decade, and they should be commended for their accomplishments. But it’s also possible their best days are in the rearview mirror, and that the rest of the league is starting to pass them by. Nearly the entire ‘Legion of Boom’ is long gone, and this Seahawks team is nearly unrecognizable from the one we saw a few years ago apart from Wilson.
Their Super Bowl win in the 2013 season feels like a lifetime ago, and they’re at risk of having things get stale. All three of their NFC West rivals have offensive whizkids as head coaches, and the Seahawks will need to make sure they have the energy to keep up with them in 2019 and beyond.
Seahawks Win Total: O/U 8.5 Wins
Oddsmakers set the Seahawks’ win total at 8.5. That means Vegas expects Seattle to take a bit of a step back in 2019, and it’s understandable why. For starters, the division should be much better. The Cardinals have Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray now, and they aren’t going to be the doormat that they were in 2018. The Rams are coming off a Super Bowl run, and they made a couple of big additions this offseason in Eric Weddle and Clay Matthews. There’s no reason to expect them to drop-off, and they’re easily the top dog in the division. Then there’s the 49ers, who can only be better this coming season. San Francisco was devastated by injuries last year, including a torn ACL for Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo will be back at full strength this year, which means the Seahawks’ road through the NFC West will be a lot tougher. Last year, almost everything went right for Seattle. They stayed healthy for the most part, had a surprisingly strong running game, and had good turnover luck. All of those factors can be high variance, and not everything is going to align perfectly for them again. In their best case scenario last year, they still only went 10-6 and got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. They won’t get so fortunate again, and if the running game takes even a small step backward they’re in big trouble. The Seahawks are being overrated because of their reputation, and the roster isn’t actually that talented. They’ll take a backseat in the division, and the loss of Baldwin is a huge downgrade to their offense.
One of my favorite future bets of the year is on the Seahawks under 8.5 wins.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +130, No -160
I don’t like the Seahawks’ chances to make the playoffs in 2019. With the Rams in the division they won’t be winning the NFC West, so their only hope is to win a wild card spot. That will be difficult as well, because several teams who missed the playoffs last year should bounce back strong in 2019, like the Packers and Vikings.
Schottenheimer is running an archaic offense that simply isn’t compatible with 2019 NFL football. Seattle won’t have as much luck as they did last year, as their defensive metrics indicate the defense should’ve performed a lot worse. It’s going to be a crowded NFC playoff picture, and I think Seattle will end up on the outside looking in.
The Seahawks are looking at an uphill climb to sneak into the playoffs, so ‘no’ is the way to look.
Odds to win the NFC West: +275
Not surprisingly, the Rams are somewhat heavy favorites to repeat as NFC West champs, and oddsmakers have the Seahawks second behind them at +275. While the Rams could come out with something of a Super Bowl hangover, it likely won’t last long. Sean McVay has built such a strong culture in Los Angeles that there’s no reason to expect them to slack off. The 49ers are poised for a breakout in the first full year of the Garoppolo/Kyle Shanahan partnership, and the Cardinals are a true wildcard.
This division could be one of the toughest in all of football, and while the Seahawks might have a higher floor than the Cardinals or 49ers, their ceiling is also lower. They don’t have the upside that the fast-paced, modern teams have, and as such I don’t see much value here.
+275 isn’t steep enough of a price to have me interested here.
Odds to win NFC Championship: 14/1
Even if the Seahawks manage to get into the playoffs, they won’t go very far. Seattle simply doesn’t have the elite talent necessary to make a deep postseason run at the moment. If they get to the playoffs they’ll be asking Wilson to carry them, and he can’t do it all by himself. They got exposed in their one playoff game last year, and I’d expect a similar fate if they’re lucky enough to get in this year.
There’s no reason to believe the Seahawks will be representing the NFC at the Super Bowl next year.
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 30/1
Same story here. The year the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, they had one of the best defenses in recent NFL history. Their current defense doesn’t come anywhere close to that, and they just traded away their best pass-rusher in Frank Clark. 30/1 isn’t going to get me interested here.
There are far better long-shots to put your money on if you want to throw a few bucks on a Super Bowl bet.
