Andrew Ortenberg
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The Week 13 Sunday slate is defined by one clear marquee matchup, and it’s this showdown here in the NFC between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles. It’s a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, only this time the 49ers will have a healthy Brock Purdy under center. There’s only one way to properly celebrate this heavyweight clash, with a same game parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 13 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this 49ers vs Eagles SGP.
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 alternate spread (+310)
Jalen Hurts 275+ passing yards (+220)
Parlay odds: +1202
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 alternate spread (+310)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Eagles -6.5 on an alt. spread. And this is more of a fade of the 49ers than it is an endorsement of the Eagles. Now is the time to sell high on San Francisco again as they’ve made it back to the top of their market price after rebounding from a three-game losing streak. And it’s a bit ridiculous that they’re road favorites of a full three points against this 10-1 Philly team.
While it’s fair to point out that the 49ers dealt with some injuries during that three-game skid, they had Brock Purdy for all three of those losses, and a three-game losing streak is a three-game losing streak no matter how you spin it. I’m not giving San Francisco too much credit for bouncing back the past few weeks with wins against an overrated Jags team, the Bucs and Seahawks.
Philadelphia is undefeated at home this season, and it’s not like they’ve been beating up on only bottom-feeders. Their last three home games have been against the Bills, Cowboys and Dolphins, and they’ve taken care of business against all three. They beat the Dolphins by 14 and have scored at least 28 points in all of their home games this season, so they’ve clearly got the offensive upside to cover this alt spread.
The Eagles have had to listen to a whole lot of talk about how they only won the NFC Championship Game last year because of the injury to Purdy, so they’ll be extra motivated to come out and make a statement here in front of their home crowd. Purdy is averaging 3.2 yards per attempt less on the road than at home and his completion percentage is 11 points lower on the road, so I think it’s fair to say there’s something significant there.
Jalen Hurts 275+ passing yards (+220)
For the second leg of our same game parlay we’ve got this passing yards prop for Hurts, and this shouldn’t be too much to ask from the MVP candidate. Hurts didn’t have too many yards last week against the Bills because they were playing in the rain, but from Weeks 3-8 he had 275+ yards in six consecutive games, so I feel pretty good about the standalone value of this prop at +220.
And I think it correlates nicely with the first leg of our same game parlay, because if the Eagles are covering -6.5 it’s likely because they had some success through the air. San Francisco has a stout front and is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league at only 82.0, so I wouldn’t expect Philly to be running the ball much here.
Instead I think they’ll put the game on Hurts’ shoulders, and oddsmakers and the general public seem to overrate the 49ers’ pass defense. Their season-long metrics look solid but they’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing quarterbacks, and this unit is clearly a step down from the San Francisco defenses of year’s past that were coordinated by Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans before they left for head coaching jobs.
Steve Wilks’ defense just isn’t the same, and the last time the 49ers faced an elite quarterback, they got carved up by Joe Burrow and the Bengals to the tune of 31 points as Burrow averaged 8.8 yards per attempt with three touchdowns.
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