San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles player prop bets for NFL NFC Championship: Jalen Hurts runs the show

And then there were 4.

The NFC Championship game is the first of the 2 matchups this Sunday, with the San Francisco 49ers traveling to Philadelphia to take on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles (-2.5). These were easily the best 2 teams in the NFC this year and it was a matchup that we did not get in the regular season. The 49ers are back in the NFCCG after losing last season to the LA Rams, while the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL all season. The premier matchup of this game will be the Eagles’ offensive line against the 49ers’ defensive line; whoever gets the better of this matchup will likely dictate the winner of the game.

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Jalen Hurts over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)

Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

This line is below Hurts’ season average of 49.6 yards per game and below his average over the last 10 (58.5 ypg). Hurts did not need to run much in the last 2 games (both against the Giants), as last week was complete domination by the Eagles and the week prior had very little meaning in the outcome. Before that Hurts hit this line in 7 of 14 games. Last season vs the 49ers the Eagles lost 17-11, but Hurts got it done on the ground. He finished that game with 10 rushes for 82 yards.

From a matchup perspective, the Eagles’ running backs will struggle to pick up chunk plays against this 49ers front 7 — and using Hurts legs on passing downs I believe is the secret to Philly winning the game. While only 1 QB has hit this line against the 49ers all season, we have seen some have success. Jarrett Stidham averaged 4.8 ypg, Geno Smith churned out 7.0 ypg and Dak Prescott most recently had 5.5 ypc. The difference between Hurts and those QBs are that Hurts will see volume to his rush attempts (already at 10.5). This line is 48.5 everywhere else and I believe will reach 50.5 by kickoff. I’m jumping on this early before the public runs this number up to an untouchable level. 1U.

Be sure to check out our full San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions

AJ Brown over 67.5 receiving yards (-110)

Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

When you trade for a guy like AJ Brown, this is the moment you need him to come through for you. Last week against the Giants marked the first time in 7 games that Brown missed this line. CeeDee Lamb had a 46-yard reception this past Sunday, but there were many deep shots taken against the 49ers’ secondary (4 total). On the season the Niners are giving up a pair of 20+ yard receptions per game and many can be directly attributed to CB Deommodore Lenoir. He has surrendered this line 3 times in the last 4 games and has been torched for 339 yards after catch on the year.

For Brown, he gets the weak link of the 49ers’ secondary and is averaging 84 ypg in 2022-23. I’m expecting to see Brown to be leaned upon to make big plays in the biggest game of the year. His standard line in 70.5 yards and this will likely be reached by kickoff. Get on this number while it’s still below 70. 1U.

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Christian McCaffrey over 59.5 rushing yards (-114)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Asking Brock Purdy to go into Philadelphia and throw the ball 30+ times is a tall task. In the two road starts for Brock Purdy, CMC saw 19 and 26 carries for 108 and 121 yards. This is not a coincidence. Shanahan will rely on McCaffrey to move the chains and take pressure off Purdy in the passing game. Last week against the Giants, it was easy for the Eagles to shut down Saquon Barkley and historically, it always has been. San Francisco represents an entirely different beast in terms of a run game; from their personnel on the offensive line to their playcaller Kyle Shanahan. There have been times this season where the Eagles rush defense, particularly the left side of that defensive line, have been gashed.

The Eagles rank 22nd overall on 1st down rush plays according to Football Outsiders and I believe CMC will be used often in that scenario. This line is the lowest CMC has seen since a meaningless Week 18 vs Arizona, previous to that we have to go back to December 11th to get a McCaffrey line in the 50’s. He’s averaging 68 y/g over the last 10. 1U

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Get on this number while it’s still below 70. 1U

Brock Purdy longest completion under 35.5 yards (-110)

Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.

Purdy has seen his longest completion line go from 32.5 all the way to 37.5 last week and has now settled back down to 35.5. In my opinion, it’s still too high when you deep dive into his matchups these last few weeks. Purdy had great success against the Seahawks, Raiders, and Commanders. The Raiders and Commanders rank 19^th and 20^th in DVOA for deep passes according Football Outsiders. The Seahawks gave up the Deebo Samuel 74-yard screen pass in the Wild Card round. Against Dallas, Purdy’s longest reception was 31 yards. Philly ranks 2^nd overall in DVOA for deep passes and have given up the 10^th fewest passes of 40+ yard or more all season. The Eagles secondary is one of the best in the league in terms of limiting missed tackles and yards per attempt (1^st overall).  Philadelphia also leads the league in sacks by a wide margin. When Purdy is under pressure, his YPA drops to 6.6 and his completion percentage is an abysmal 46.9%. Expect Shanahan to rely heavily on short passes and the run game to come out of Philadelphia with a win. 0.5U