The NFL Conference Championships get underway on Sunday with the San Francisco 49ers meeting the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game. Both teams have been hot all season long but only one can move on to Super Bowl 57 to face either the Cincinnati Bengals or Kansas City Chiefs. Can Brock Purdy guide the Niners to the Super Bowl, or will Jalen Hurts and the Eagles continue to roll? Let’s get into our expert’s 49ers vs Eagles picks, predictions and best bets.
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NFL San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles expert predictions
It’s been more than 3 months since the 49ers last lost a game and even since Jimmy Garoppolo went out injured they have continued to keep winning. Their offense and defense have been dominating teams and there is every chance they are able to handle the Eagles. Philadelphia has been running all over teams, highlighted by their 38-7 win over the Giants last week, but the 49ers do have the best run defense in the NFL and if they can find a way to stop the Eagles, San Francisco has a great chance of punching their ticket to the Super Bowl.
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San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: 49ers +2.5, Eagles -2.5
Total Points Over/Under: 46.5 points
Money Line Odds: 49ers +125, Eagles -145
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San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the 49ers and Eagles.
49ers vs Eagles point spread pick: 49ers +2.5 (+100)
This should be an excellent matchup between two teams that played the single easiest (Philly) and 2nd-easiest (SF) schedules in the NFL. I think this game is going to be played much more through the air than most people expect. Look for the Eagles to try to slow down the Niners’ run game, mainly Christian McCaffrey, to force rookie QB Brock Purdy to try to beat them through the air. Purdy has been excellent from an advanced metric standpoint, sitting #1 in EPA per drop-back during the playoffs. Now the question is can Purdy continue his excellent play in by far the most hostile environment he has faced, on the road in Philadelphia? We have seen Purdy in only 2 road situations, a close OT game in Las Vegas and a 21-16 win in Seattle on a Thursday night. While I don’t think Purdy will be perfect, I think he has enough playmakers to win this game.
The Eagles pass defense has been excellent but they have struggled stopping the run, ranking 21st in DVOA. That’s why I think the Eagles will overcommit to stop the run, opening things up over the middle of the field with TE George Kittle. The Eagles as a franchise don’t believe in investing heavily in the LB position and it has shown on the field the last few years. While on the surface it looks like they have done a good job defending TEs (16th in DVOA), they have not had to deal with an elite TE such as Kittle all season. Look for him to be the main option when Purdy needs to make a play. The Niners offense is 3rd in the NFL in EPA. Philadelphia has played only 3 other top-10 offenses this season — Dallas (only 1 game with Dak Prescott, though), Jacksonville (in a driving rain storm) and the Lions, way back in Week 1. In the Dallas game that Dak started the Eagles gave up 40 points in a loss and that was the Cowboys’ 6th-best offensive performance against any defense this season. Against the Lions, Philly allowed 35 points in Detroit’s 4th-best EPA game all season. They have shown plenty against the bad offenses in the NFL, but in the limited times they had to go up against a top-10 offense, they have been lit up. Purdy has really faced only 2 good defenses in his short stint, a 37-20 win against Washington and the 19-12 win last week versus Dallas. He just faced a similar level of defense in the Cowboys and was just good enough to win that game. That’s about the level I expect from Purdy.
At the same time, the Eagles have been awesome on offense but they too have rarely faced elite defenses like San Fran’s. In Jalen Hurts’ lone game against Dallas, the Eagles posted their 2nd-worst offensive EPA game of the season. They also lost 32-21 to the Commanders, the other good defense they faced. In the first matchup against Washington, the Eagles blitzed early but didn’t score in the second half. The Eagles have been absolute bullies when facing bad defenses and much of their season-long offensive stats represent that. They are #2 in the NFL in EPA against bottom-10 defenses. The Eagles have been really good at finding the weaknesses of the defenses that they are facing and just attacking them at will. When they faced the Titans, who ranked #1 in rush EPA defense but bottom 10 against the pass, Hurts threw early and often in a blowout win. The problem for them going against SF’s D is that the 49ers are in the top 5 in both pass and run defense. I think they’d rather drop Hurts back a lot and attack the Niners down the field, as SF ranks 24th in DVOA against the deep ball. Look for Philly to take some shots early down the field. The problem is that I am not sure that will be sustainable against this pass-rush. I think when it’s all said and done, the Niners have too many advantages and can slow down what the Eagles want to do on offense. The mismatches with Kittle and McCaffrey against the Eagles’ slower LBs should prove too much to stop. I think the Niners can win a 23-20 type of battle.
Be sure to check out our full 49ers vs Eagles predictions
49ers vs Eagles Over/Under totals pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
There is plenty of excitement surrounding the NFC Conference Championship as it not only features two of the more prolific offenses in the NFL, but two of the top defenses as well. The Philadelphia Eagles boast the second-highest scoring offense, and are ranked sixth in DVOA for total defense, while the San Francisco 49ers have scored the sixth-most points this season with a defense that ranks first overall in DVOA defensive rankings. It is truly the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.
If you were to find a weakness in each defensive unit, you can look to the Eagles struggling to stop the run while the 49ers’ secondary has had recent moments of getting roughed up by some of the more high-octane passing attacks. Most notably was CeeDee Lamb’s 117-yard game in the Divisional Round and the Raiders posting well over 350 yards through the air and three passing touchdowns during Week 17.
However, both holes have seemingly been addressed as the Eagles brought in Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph to stop the run, while 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans has made the necessary adjustments in his coverage schemes to counter. There wasn’t much wrenching for either club to do, but they have done it. The under has hit in the last four games for the Eagles, including last week’s win over the Giants, and in five of their last six. The under has hit only twice in the last six for the 49ers, but they’ve allowed an average of just 19 points per game in that span, so the over has hit strictly because the opposing defenses could not compete. The Eagles’ defense is up for the task this week, as is the defense of the 49ers. We’re not saying there won’t be any scoring, but a 23-20 game seems about right.
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San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles expert predictions
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