Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
Best bet- 49ers over 8 wins
Worst bet- 49ers to miss the playoffs at -250
In year two of the Kyle Shanahan era, the San Francisco 49ers still couldn’t catch a break. After the team made a trade for Jimmy Garoppolo in the middle of the 2017 season and Jimmy G rattled off five straight wins to end the year, there was understandably a lot of optimism heading into 2018.
Unfortunately, their season was derailed by injuries. Projected starting running back Jerick McKinnon, signed to a huge contract last offseason, tore his ACL before the season started. Just a few weeks into it, Garoppolo tore an ACL of his own. They were forced to turn to C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens under center for the rest of the season, and ended up finishing the season 4-12.
Once again, there’s a lot of excitement surrounding the team. Garoppolo has made good progress in his recovery and should be 100 percent by the time the season starts. As a result of their abysmal record the 49ers landed the second overall pick in the draft, which got them stud pass-rusher Nick Bosa.
That wasn’t the only big splash San Francisco made this offseason, as they also traded for pass-rusher Dee Ford and signed inside linebacker Kwon Alexander to a massive deal. They also signed running back Tevin Coleman, who Shanahan is very familiar with from his days in Atlanta, and drafted receiver Deebo Samuel in the second round. They’ll be playing in a tough NFC West, but expectations are still sky-high.
The 49ers had a great run of success under Jim Harbaugh a handful of years ago, but they’ve been a mess ever since. They’ve cycled through coaches like Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly, and desperately need Shanahan to be the answer.
Shanahan can’t be blamed for the results in the first couple of years of his tenure, but the pressure will be massive to win in 2019. There’s been a ton of hype surrounding both Shanahan and Garoppolo, and now they have to deliver on it.
49ers Win Total: O/U 8 Wins
Oddsmakers set the 49ers’ win total at eight. That means Vegas expects San Francisco to take a big step forward in 2019, and it’s understandable why. The 49ers were clearly much better than their record indicated last year, as they were able to stay competitive and lost a bunch of close games even with their roster decimated by injuries. Just running it back with the same team from last year the 49ers would’ve been much better in 2019, assuming they didn’t have such terrible luck two years in a row. But the 49ers didn’t stand pat, they made a series of bold moves to upgrade the roster.
Shanahan is always going to deliver an excellent scheme and a quality offense. He’s a master play-caller and can scheme just about anybody open. It was the other side of the ball that needed most of the work, and they were aggressive in tearing down and rebuilding the defense this offseason. The pass-rush has been arguably the worst in the league the past couple of seasons, so it’s hard to understate how big of an impact Bosa and Ford will have. This San Francisco defense is going to look entirely different, and there’s no reason to think it won’t be much better. They also made a sneaky good pickup when they signed cornerback Jason Verrett to a low-risk deal. Verrett was a 2014 first-round pick of the Chargers who initially starred in the league and made the Pro Bowl in 2015. Injuries have cost him each of the past three seasons but if he can stay healthy he’ll prove to be a great addition.
Simply put, this team is going to be a lot better than it was last year. Assuming they stay healthy, the sky is the limit for the 49ers.
One of my favorite future bets of the year is on the 49ers over eight wins.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +195, No -250
This is an interesting one. The division is tough, but the 49ers have the pieces to hang with anyone. I’m really high on second-year receiver Dante Pettis, and they have quite possibly the best tight end in the league in George Kittle. It only took nine wins to make it to the playoffs in the NFC last year, and I think the 49ers can reach that easily.
The NFC wild card picture could be a little tougher this year, at +195 this prop is definitely enticing. The last time Shanahan had a real offense at his disposal, it was one of the best units in recent league history with the 2016 Falcons.
This seems like somewhat of a 50/50 tossup, so getting +195 is great value.
Odds to win the NFC West: +550
Not surprisingly, the Rams are somewhat heavy favorites to repeat as NFC West champs, and oddsmakers have the 49ers third behind them and the Seahawks at +550. The Seahawks are +275, which makes this number interesting. Oddsmakers have Seattle and San Francisco with similar odds to win the NFC Championship and Super Bow as well as a similar win total, but the Seahawks for some reason have much better odds to win the division.
That doesn’t add up, and I think the 49ers have a good chance to be a lot better than Seattle. The Rams are coming off a Super Bowl run, but there’s reason to believe they might take a step back. They lost two starters on the interior of their offensive line, and their replacements have never started a game in the NFL. Teams often come out with a hangover after a Super Bowl run, and the 49ers could take advantage of a slow start from the Rams.
+550 is a steep enough price to have me interested here, considering the 49ers have a lot of upside.
Odds to win NFC Championship: 16/1
Even though I think the 49ers have a good chance to make the playoffs, I don’t think they’ll make a deep run. A hypothetical postseason appearance would be Garoppolo’s first ever playoff start, and the whole team doesn’t have much experience in big games. It’s still a very young squad, and they’re at least another year away from reaching this kind of height.
There’s no reason to believe the 49ers will be representing the NFC at the Super Bowl next year.
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 30/1
Same story here. The 49ers still aren’t a complete enough team to compete for a championship, and they don’t have the maturity or experience to make this kind of a run.
The team does have a lot of theoretical upside so if you’re looking for a long-shot they aren’t a bad pick, but I wouldn’t recommend it.
