Caleb Wilfinger
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It all comes down to this. March Madness is drawing to a close; we just have 1 game remaining in this wild NCAA Tournament. Now the upstart San Diego State Aztecs will take on the heavily favored UConn Huskies in the National Championship on Monday. With a 7.5-point spread, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Aztecs much of a shot to hang with the Huskies in this one. But that’s why they play the games, right?
Let’s take a look at the odds and my prediction for the national title game.
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March Madness National Championship betting lines and odds
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: San Diego State +7.5, UConn -7.5
Total Points Over/Under: 132.5 points
Money Line Odds: San Diego State +280, UConn -350
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National Championship point spread pick: UConn -7.5 (-110)
It’s tough to pick against UConn right now, and it has been for some time. The Huskies have won all 5 of their NCAA Tournament games by at least 13 points, easily covering the closing line in every game. Given the fact that they keep blowing teams out —which inflates their line for their next game — this should be a spot to find value on the underdog. However, it’s tough to find a weakness for the UConn defense at the moment, as they just held 2 of the best offenses in the country to their lowest point total of the season. SDSU’s offense is much worse than Gonzaga and Miami to say the least, so the matchup shouldn’t be a challenge for the Huskies.
On the other end of the floor, San Diego State’s excellent defense gives the Aztecs a shot of keeping the game close. However, the Huskies are averaging over 20 assists per game in their tournament run, as they continue to decimate opposing defenses. The Aztecs are great at stopping dribble-drives, but that’s only a small part of the UConn offense given how well the Huskies move the ball. Look for UConn to cap off its dominant tournament run with a convincing win and take home the title.
Be sure to read our full National Championship Game predictions
National Championship game totals pick: Under 132.5 (-110)
Both of these teams rank in the top 8 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, so you can expect a defensive battle here. San Diego State will want to slow the game down, which means we could see a game played to a lower possession total than what oddsmakers expect. Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins will be tested for the Huskies, as they’ll likely be matched up against Aguek Arop — one of the nation’s best perimeter defenders. It’s hard to see this potent UConn offense be contained for the entire game, but the Aztecs should be able make things difficult on the Huskies.
On the other side, UConn’s defense is fantastic at protecting the rim, which forces their opponents to make jump shots instead. San Diego State shot the ball very well in its win over FAU, but the Aztecs have struggled from the floor in previous tournament games against Creighton and Alabama. Look for another instance of San Diego State’s offense to struggle mightily, but for the Aztecs to help keep this game under the total with their defensive prowess.
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