Matthew Lowrimore
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Best Bet – San Antonio Spurs Over 45.5 wins (-110)
Worst Bet – San Antonio Spurs to Win the NBA Championship (+6600)
To no surprise, the Spurs had another successful season in 2018-2019. They made the playoffs again as the 7th seed in the West and took the Denver Nuggets to the wire before losing in game seven in the first round. They won game one of this series, but shockingly failed to win the home games necessary to win the series. This was another early exit in the playoffs for the Spurs, as they have been bounced two years in a row in the first round.
Some notable stat lines include LaMarcus Aldridge, who led the team in scoring last season with 21.3 points per game. DeMar DeRozan was right behind him an averaged 21.2 points per game. Aldridge also led the team in rebounds per game at 9.2 per game, while DeRozan led the team in assists with 6.2 per game. Some other notable contributors are Rudy Gay, who averaged 13.7 points per game and Bryn Forbes, who averaged 11.8 points per game.
To recap the 2019 draft for the Spurs, they picked Luka Šamanić and Keldon Johnson in the first round. In the second round, they selected Quinndary Weatherspoon. Šamanić was drafted out of Europe and played for FC Barcelona B and Olimpija. Reports have said that he was evaluated by Tim Duncan, so he obviously has shown some promising talent. He is 6’11 and plays power forward. He also is only 19 years old, so he will have plenty of time to develop under one of the best head coaches of all-time. Keldon Johnson went to the University of Kentucky. He averaged 13.5 points per game under Coach Cal in his one year with the program. Weatherspoon also attended a SEC school, Mississippi State, but he attended college for four years. In his four-year career, he averaged 15.4 points per game. Both guys are guards and could help bolster an already young backcourt.
San Antonio Spurs Win Total: O/U 45.5 Wins
The Spurs easily hit this number last season, winning 48 games on the year. This was only good for the 7th in the West, so if the Spurs want to extend their streak of making the playoffs, they pretty much are required to win more than this number. They still have DeRozan an added some promising young talent. Lonnie Walker IV is looking to be ready for the season after only playing 17 games last season due to an injury. Also, note that the Spurs have been so good at home, so even if they go slightly below .500 on the road, they will still easily cover this prop.
I would lean towards the over for this prop because somehow the Spurs just always find a way to win. The last time they won less than 45 games was in 1998, so the over just feels like the better play.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes -200, No +170
The Spurs continue to make the playoffs year after year even though they do not have the strongest lineup. They do have DeMar DeRozan, who is their leader now. They still have LeMarcus Aldridge and some other young players who are developing very nicely. The West is extremely strong in the top half, but near the bottom they are very manageable to overcome. This play is banking on the fact that the Spurs will have to beat out teams like the Timberwolves, Pelicans, Kings, an even the Thunder, who are looking to be in the early stages of a rebuild after trading away both Westbrook and George.
I would lean towards the “Yes” in this prop. Even having to lay -200, the Spurs have enough talent to sneak in as one of the lower seeds. Greg Popovich is still a Hall of Fame coach, so regardless who is on his roster, he will have his guys ready to play come this season.
Odds to win Southwest Division: +400
The main problem with this prop is the Houston Rockets are in their division. Obviously, the Rockets added Russell Westbrook making them a very dangerous team. However, we are talking about the Spurs here, who have been incredibly consistent for more than a decade now. They were within five games of the Rockets last season an even though the Rockets look like a better team, the Spurs just find ways to win. There is also the fact that the Rockets may be one of those teams that will rest their guys when the season is close to ending. Either that or the Rockets will likely have some tension in the locker room since both Harden and Westbrook are going to want the ball. Westbrook has said that sacrifices might have to be made, but it has been years since these guys have played together every night, so I just do not see them meshing as well as everyone thinks.
If you do not want to lay -250 on the Rockets, the Spurs are a decent value play to win the Southwest.
Odds to win the Western Conference: +4000
The Western Conference has clearly improved, making the Spurs a second-tier team so to speak. They just do not have the talent to compete with the top of the West. Even though they took the Nuggets to seven games last season, the Spurs will not be a team that makes it deep into the playoffs.
Even at +4400, this would be a dumb bet given that the Clippers have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George now.
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +6600
The time for the Spurs to win another championship has passed for the time being and they will be lucky to make it into the second round of the playoffs.
Betting the Spurs to win the NBA title would not be very smart considering they have not fared well in the playoffs in recent years.
