Andrew Ortenberg
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We cashed our very first World Series same game parlay at nearly 19/1, and now we’re back again to try to make it two for two. The World Series will reconvene for Game 6 here as the Los Angeles Dodgers try to eliminate the Tampa Bay Rays.
FanDuel is now offering same game parlays, which are great because you can stack bets that are highly correlated and therefore present value. We’ll be breaking down our favorite one for Tuesday night, which has the potential for a huge payout. You can also check out our full preview of the game, which includes picks on the side and total.
Los Angeles Dodgers -3.5 alternate run line (+360)
Blake Snell under 5.5 strikeouts (+128)
Mookie Betts to record 2+ hits (+220)
Parlay odds: +1590
I think the Dodgers close this one out on Tuesday, and if they do then they’ll likely do it behind their offense, which explains our bet here.
Los Angeles Dodgers -3.5 alternate run line
As I mentioned I think the Dodgers close this one out on Tuesday, and the offenses in this series quietly haven’t even been close. It might look close at 3-2, but that figure is wildly misleading. The Rays only even pushed it to Game 6 because of some fluke errors in Game 4, and when you dig into it these lineups aren’t even in the same league.
So far through this series the Dodgers have scored at least four runs in every game while the Rays have been held to three or fewer in three of five. The Dodgers have a superb team OPS of .859 during this series, while the Rays’ is a paltry .708. The Dodgers have the higher floor and the much higher ceiling, and their run differential this postseason has already set a major league record. As such, I always like playing them on an alternate run line.
Justin Turner wasted no time.
Dodgers lead 1-0
We're on Dodgers 1.5 🙏 pic.twitter.com/mMDJA3Jzk5
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) October 25, 2020
Blake Snell under 5.5 strikeouts
See what we mean by highly correlated? If the Dodgers are winning by more than three runs, then guess who probably had a pretty bad day? Snell. With this being an elimination game Snell is going to be on an extremely short leash, and I expect the Rays to go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. There’s nothing left for them to save relievers for and no reason to have Snell eat up innings if he isn’t pitching well.
He had a great strikeout game in Game 2 of this series, which caused oddsmakers to inflate this total. In his previous three starts, he had failed to top four strikeouts. With this Dodgers lineup also already having seen him in this series, they won’t be fooled nearly as easily by his stuff.
Mookie Betts to record 2+ hits
We had this same leg in our first World Series same game parlay and Betts cashed it for us, and we’re going back to the well here. Betts has multiple hits in four of his last eight games, so it’s not exactly like this is a rare occurrence. This prop also correlates highly with the Dodgers winning by a handful of runs as well as chasing Snell from the game early.
Betts bats leadoff, which of course maximizes the amount of at bats he gets in any game. He also has a history of success against Snell from their time in the AL East together, with a career .892 OPS against the left-hander. Betts might be the best contact hitter in baseball, and he’s not going to strikeout too often. With a chance to close out the series, I think he has a big game here.
