Ricky Dimon
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We have yet another twin billing on Monday night, starting with a rescheduled meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills that will be followed by this showdown featuring the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys. With Dak Prescott having been lost for the season due to a dislocated ankle, Dallas is actually a home underdog. There could be value in that bet, as well as in the total and some player props.
Let’s dive into our favorite same-game parlay for this NFC matchup, which has the potential for a big payout. You can also check out our full preview of the game, including picks on the side and total.
Cowboys ML (-102)
Over 55 points (-110)
Ezekiel Elliott Over 89.5 rushing yards (-110)
Kyler Murray anytime touchdown scorer (+150)
Parlay odds: +1192
Not all of these plays are correlated, as Murray scoring a touchdown obviously wouldn’t help the cause for a Dallas victory. However, we are also backing the over and therefore don’t think the Cowboys would have any trouble overcoming a Murray TD run or two. If Ezekiel Elliott can run the offensive show in support of new starting quarterback Andy Dalton, the ‘Boys will have a good chance of winning a high-scoring affair. Needless to say, we think this parlay at +1192 has great value.
Cowboys ML (-102)
Yes, Dallas is down to its backup quarterback following last weekend’s disaster (albeit in a winning effort against the Giants). But Dalton is not your average backup. The veteran is a three-time Pro Bowler, with all of that success coming as the leader of a bad franchise—the Cincinnati Bengals. Now Dalton finds himself surrounded by weapons like Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. The Cardinals are a decent 3-2, but their wins have come at the expense of the Jets, Washington, and a depleted 49ers squad.
Over 55 points (-110)
The Cowboys’ offense is not automatically going to fall off the map just because Dalton is under center instead of Prescott. Dalton has tons of starting experience and he helped the Cowboys finish off last week’s victory over the Giants following Prescott’s injury. Also keep in the mind that the Cardinals allowed 31 points to Carolina two weeks ago. On the other side of the ball, Dallas’ defense is horrendous. This team has given up at least 37 points in four straight games and the secondary is especially porous. Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be able to dial up all kinds of effective running and passing plays that Murray can implement with great success.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 89.5 rushing yards (-110)
Elliott has exceeded this 89.5 number twice so far this season and on another occasion he finished right at 89. The only times he has fallen short have been when he got just 12 and 14 carries. With Prescott gone, it is hard to see the former Ohio State standout getting so few rushing attempts. Even if Dalton has a good game, the Cowboys are going to make Elliott the focal point of the offense from start to finish—assuming they are never trailing by a lot. Arizona is giving up a mediocre 124.2 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
Kyler Murray anytime touchdown scorer (+150)
Murray already has five touchdown runs this year and has scored at least once on the ground in four of five contests. As such, you have to consider getting him at +150 to be a steal. Dallas is dead last in scoring defense, 27th in total defense, and 28th in rushing defense. There is no reason why Murray can’t run circles around the Cowboys on Monday. Arizona may have some problems on Monday night, but those problems are not going to come on offense.
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