Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
Monday Night Football in Week 5 pits the New Orleans Saints against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams could really use a victory, as the Saints are looking to tie Tampa Bay and Carolina atop the NFC South while the Chargers are struggling at 1-3.
FanDuel is offering same-game parlays, which is great because you can package props that are highly correlated together in a single bet. Let’s dive into our favorite such parlay for this matchup, which has the potential for a huge payout. You can also check out our full preview of the game, including ATS and O/U picks.
Over 49.5 points (-115)
Drew Brees Over 265.5 passing yards (-113)
Alvin Kamara Over 48.5 receiving yards (-113)
Justin Herbert Over 261.5 passing yards (-128)
Parlay odds: +1083
See what we mean by “highly correlated”? We are bullish on this MNF showdown developing into a high-scoring shootout, in which case all of these plays would have a good chance of hitting. If Brees, Kamara, and Herbert all have big nights, you would naturally expect this game to go over the total. As such, at almost 11/1 odds you have to like the risk-reward value in this parlay.
Over 49.5 points (-115)
This total was once as high as 51, when we took the over while previewing this game. Obviously, there is no reason to shy away from the number now that it is down to 49.5. The Saints are without Janoris Jenkins (shoulder), while fellow cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) is questionable. Defensive end Marcus Davenport (toe), who has missed the whole season so far, is also questionable. As for the Chargers’ defense, it is missing Melvin Ingram and a whole host of other impact players. That is music to the ears of Brees, who should have plenty of success even without the services of receiver Michael Thomas. Brees and company have reached the 30-point mark in three of four contests in 2020.
Drew Brees Over 265.5 passing yards (-113)
The Saints’ signal-caller looked like an old Brees in Week 1, even though they beat the Buccaneers in a battle between QBs on the wrong side of 40. But he has looked more like the Brees of old since then. In the past three outings, the 41-year-old is averaging 282.0 passing yards. He has also thrown five touchdown passes over the past two games. As mentioned above, the Chargers’ defense is depleted right now and they will have a tough time containing what remains a well-oiled offensive machine even with Thomas on the sideline.
Alvin Kamara Over 48.5 receiving yards (-113)
Why is Thomas out? Nope, it is not because of the ankle injury that has sidelined him from the past three games. It’s because he recently punched a teammate (C.J. Gardner-Johnson) during practice. You can’t make this stuff up, folks. Of course, the reason for Thomas’ absence is neither here nor there; it’s just fun to mention. What matters is simply that he is absent. Kamara is already the focal point of New Orleans’ offense, and he will continue as such to an even greater extent since Brees’ favorite target remains off the field. Kamara has exceeded this number (48.5) in three of four games this year and twice he has done so with room to spare. Against the Packers in Week 3, he had 13 receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns. This is quite simply a modest total by Kamara’s lofty pass-catching standards.
Justin Herbert Over 261.5 passing yards (-128)
Speaking of bizarre reasons for key players being out, Tyrod Taylor got hurt early in the season when the Chargers’ own doctor punctured his lung. Thus, Herbert’s NFL career began, and he has played well enough to already be named the starter for the rest of the 2020 campaign by head coach Anthony Lynn. With that pressure off his shoulders, the former Oregon star should be able to take another leap forward. In three appearances as a pro, Herbert’s passing yardage totals are 311, 330, and 290. He should be able to rack up similar statistics at the Saints’ expense. This Monday Night Football game is a tale of two quarterbacks at opposite ends of the career spectrum. But we expect them to have something in common when they go head-to-head: smashing success.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL predictions. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks.
