Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
The clay-court season on the pro tennis tour continues with the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome, which is a Masters tournament for the ATP and a Premier event for the WTA. Both are worth 1000 ranking points to the champion, making it the highest tier below the Grand Slams. It’s an especially important fortnight on tour because Rome is the last big tournament prior to the French Open.
For me, this spring has been a smashing success. I hit a 1-unit play on Petra Kvitova to win the Miami Open at 100/1 odds and last week I nailed my 3-star best bet on Aryna Sabalenka to win the Madrid. Open at +850. Overall for the 2023 campaign I am up +52.11 units on my tennis futures plays.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at the odds and my picks for the upcoming festivities in the Italian capital.
Tennis wagers can be made at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer where you can bet $5 on any team and get $150 in bonus bets instantly! Click here to claim this great sign-up offer.
ATP Rome odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz +130
Novak Djokovic +300
Jannik Sinner +800
Holger Rune +1200
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1400
Daniil Medvedev +2200
Alexander Zverev +2200
Casper Ruud +3300
Andrey Rublev +4000
Felix Auger-Aliassime +5000
Francisco Cerundolo +5000
Lorenzo Musetti +5000
Karen Khachanov +5000
3-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+800)
This sets up extremely well for Sinner. He is playing at home in front of an Italian crowd that is always incredibly raucous. He also skipped Madrid, so he is well rested to make a run at it in Rome. Additionally, he is in the half of the draw opposite Carlos Alcaraz. That does mean Sinner is on the same side as Novak Djokovic, but based on current form it may be even better to be away from Alcaraz. Perhaps most importantly, Sinner is playing awesome tennis. The 21-year-old is 26-6 this season and has climbed to #8 in the rankings. His success at the 1000-point level includes a runner-up performance in Miami and semifinal showings in Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo.
2-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+6600)
Fritz has been incredibly consistent, reaching at least the quarterfinals in 7 of his last 8 tournaments. The 9th-ranked American may be at his best on hard courts as opposed to clay, but right now he can win on absolutely any surface. He is 27-9 in 2023 with a title in Delray Beach. Fritz finds himself in a difficult and very deep section of the Rome bracket, but at least he wouldn’t have to face Alcaraz until the semis and Djokovic until the final.
1-star value play: Frances Tiafoe (+10000)
Tiafoe is generally a decent play in the futures market because he is sort of an all-or-nothing kind of player. The American is prone to an early exit now and then, but his talent is such that he can go all the way in the blink of an eye. Tiafoe has been playing the best and most consistent tennis of his career dating back to last summer, too. The world #12 is in Alcaraz’s quarter of the draw, but the Spaniard could be fatigued following his title in Madrid and other than that Tiafoe’s path is a favorable one.
You can bet on all of today’s sports over at Caesars, which has a great sign-up offer where you can get up to $1,250 back on your first bet! Click here to sign up for Caesars right now.
WTA Rome odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +105
Aryna Sabalenka +650
Jessica Pegula +1600
Barbora Krejcikova +2000
Ons Jabeur +2400
Paula Badosa +2400
Elena Rybakina +2900
Coco Gauff +2900
Maria Sakkari +3000
Carolina Garcia +3800
Veronika Kudermetova +4400
Madison Keys +4400
3-star value play: Barbora Krejcikova (+2000)
I don’t back Krejcikova a whole lot, but I was on her at +1600 last fall in Ostrava and that proved to be a winner. It’s time to get back on the bandwagon, in part because the 27-year-old is a former French Open champion (2021). She knows how to get the job done on clay. Krejcikova lifted the trophy in Dubai (also a 1000-point event) earlier this season, which also inspires confidence. The Czech is in Iga Swiatek’s half of the draw, but she is 2-2 lifetime against Swiatek and even on clay pushed the Pole to 7-5 in the third set two years ago in Rome. Krejcikova can beat anyone on any given day.
2-star value play: Jessica Pegula (+1600)
In four 1000-point events this season, Pegula has reached two semifinals, a quarterfinal (just recently in Madrid) and a fourth round. It’s also worth noting that she finished runner-up in Madrid last year. It seems like only a matter of time before the American wins one of these things. Clay does not make it easy (especially not with Swiatek in the field), but Pegula has a favorable path in the bottom half of the draw opposite the top seed. The world #3 is in a section with a slumping Coco Gauff and also with Karolina Pliskova, who is nowhere near her best on clay. This is a great opportunity for Pegula.
1-star value play: Aryna Sabalenka (+650)
I can’t entirely discount Sabalenka after she just won big for me in Madrid. That being said, getting her at +650 at a tournament that is tougher for her than one in which she went off at +850 is not the best value. As a result, she is only a 1-star play for me in Rome – where conditions are much slower than they are in the high altitude of Madrid. That isn’t great for a huge server like Sabalenka whose game is predicated on power. She will have to play longer baseline points than she did this past fortnight. Still, Sabalenka is playing so well these days that she has a chance to win any tournament she enters regardless of the circumstances.
You can bet on various tennis markets at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has the best odds available and a great new customer offer where you can get $150 in bonus bets after making an initial wager of just $5! Click here to take advantage of this can’t-miss offer.
The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis predictions and picks from top events including the U.S. Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the Australian Open.
