Ricky Dimon
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The fall swing on the tennis tour heats up in a major way with the first ATP Masters 1000 event since the summer, starting on Wednesday in Shanghai. World #1 Novak Djokovic is still taking a break following his US Open triumph, but everyone else in the top 25 of the rankings is in the draw. That includes world #2 and top seed Carlos Alcaraz in addition to defending champion and world #3 Daniil Medvedev.
Here are the odds and my best bets to win the Shanghai Masters.
Rolex Shanghai Masters odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz +175
Daniil Medvedev +380
Jannik Sinner +500
Alexander Zverev +1600
Andrey Rublev +1800
Taylor Fritz +2500
Alex de Minaur +2500
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2800
Casper Ruud +3500
Hubert Hurkacz +3500
Holger Rune +3500
Frances Tiafoe +4000
Karen Khachanov +4000
Sebastian Korda +4000
Grigor Dimitrov +4000
Ben Shelton +5000
Cameron Norrie +5000
3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+380)
Medvedev is a player who feeds off momentum. When he gets on a hot streak, it can last for a long time. He is on one right now, with a recent runner-up performance at the US Open followed by a final appearance in Beijing (vs Jannik Sinner on Wednesday). Medvedev found himself on a heater in 2019, as well, when he reached 6 consecutive finals — a stretch that culminated with none other than the Shanghai title. As the #2 seed, the third-ranked Russian is obviously on the other side of the draw from Alcaraz. That is good news, but even if Medvedev faces Alcaraz in the title match it should be noted that he just toppled the Spaniard in the US Open semis.
2-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+1600)
When Medvedev triumphed at this tournament 4 years ago, it was Zverev whom he defeated in the final. The 10th-ranked German also advanced to the semis in 2018 before falling to Djokovic. Zverev always seems to play well in the fall and this 2023 Asian swing feels like no exception. He heads into Shanghai on the heels of successful results in Chengdu (title) and Beijing (semifinals, lost to Medvedev). Zverev has a tough draw with Medvedev potentially in the quarters, but whoever wins that possible matchup would have a great chance to take the title.
1-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+1800)
If you want to take a stab at a longer shot, it would be wise to look at someone who is well-rested and has Masters 1000-winning experience. Rublev checks both of those boxes. The world #6 has played only 3 matches since the US Open and lost in the Beijing second round to Alex de Minaur. Rublev’s tank is full and his motivation level should be high, as he can secure a spot in the year-end championship (top 8 players) with just a couple more productive weeks. The 25-year-old captured his first Masters 1000 title this spring in Monte-Carlo; it’s not out of the question for him to duplicate the feat in Shanghai.
