Ricky Dimon
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Only 3 weeks remain on 2023 ATP Tour calendar, including two events that are very big – this one, the Rolex Paris Masters, and then in mid-November with the Nitto ATP Finals (the year-end championship with the top 8 players). In Paris, the top 17 men in the rankings and 31 of the top 32 are taking the court. That includes #1 Novak Djokovic, who has played only one match since winning the US Open, and Carlos Alcaraz, who withdrew from Basel this past week because of an injury.
Here are the odds and my best bets to win the Paris Masters.
Rolex Paris Masters odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +175
Carlos Alcaraz +330
Daniil Medvedev +700
Jannik Sinner +800
Andrey Rublev +2200
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2500
Alexander Zverev +2800
Hubert Hurkacz +3500
Taylor Fritz +3500
Holger Rune +4000
Grigor Dimitrov +4000
Ben Shelton +4000
Sebastian Korda +4000
3-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+800)
The only potential red flag for Jannik Sinner is a lack of rest after lifting the Vienna trophy on Sunday, but I think the momentum he has behind him outweighs any fatigue. The 4th-ranked Italian is on a roll right now, just as he has been throughout the entire year. He is 56-14 this season and 12-1 in 13 matches since the US Open. Sinner secured his first title at the Masters 1000 level a few months ago in Toronto, so he knows he can win on this kind of stage. The 22-year-old has a first-round bye as the #4 seed and therefore won’t have to play until Wednesday, so he should be rested enough to make another run.
2-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+700)
Daniil Medvedev has also been producing good results left and right. He has reached the final at 3 of his last 4 tournaments: the US Open, Beijing and Vienna. Unfortunately for the Russian, all 3 of those ended with him the runner-up instead of champion (two against Sinner and a US Open loss to Djokovic). I think Medvedev has a chance to go a step farther and get over the hump this time around. He has a favorable draw on the side opposite Djokovic and with a struggling Casper Ruud as the other top-8 seed in his section. The world #3 is playing great tennis and he generally performs well at this late stage of the year, so +700 is a value bet that should not be missed.
1-star value play: Karen Khachanov (+5000)
Strange things often happen at the end of the tennis season when everyone is tired. Paris has produced a whole host of wild results, and none other than Karen Khachanov himself is among those who have been involved. Khachanov won this tournament in 2018, a year after Jack Sock was the surprise champion. Holger Rune captured the title last fall. Anyway, you get the point. Unexpected Paris results really aren’t that unexpected. Even though it was 5 years ago, Khachanov should take confidence from his past success at this event. It should also be noted that the Russian’s fall swing already includes a title in Zhuhai and a quarterfinal effort in Vienna, where he lost to Medvedev in a 3-setter. At +5000, Khachanov is worth a sprinkle.
