Caleb Wilfinger
Game 3 of this Western Conference opening round series between Steph Curry and the veteran Warriors against the feisty, young and inexperienced Rockets should be a gritty, physical contest, much like what we saw in the first couple of games. The Warriors took Game 1 behind a sensational shooting display from Curry, while the Rockets punched back with a massive effort in Game 2 to even the series.
With the series shifting to the Bay Area, here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 8:30 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out all of our NBA predictions.
Warriors -3 (-110)
Under 204 (-115)
Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 made threes (-122)
Parlay odds: +405
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that your odds can be correlated, if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Rockets guard Fred VanVleet going under his 3-pointers made prop does work well with a win by the home team. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Warriors -3 (-110)
This is an extremely difficult game to handicap in terms of a side, but I’m leaning toward a win and cover for the Warriors on Saturday. The status of Jimmy Butler is crucial for this game, but Golden State is “cautiously optimistic” that the veteran forward will play on Saturday. Assuming Butler is in the lineup, the Warriors defense should put forth its best effort of the series, which leads me to believe that we’ll see a sluggish offensive effort from the Rockets. On the other side of the ball, Curry’s shot volume will likely increase in this game, regardless of whether Butler suits up. This not only creates a bit more variance in the game, but it should also free up opportunities for some of the Warriors role players to get some easy buckets and settle into this series at home thanks to Curry’s gravity. Home teams in the NBA playoffs are covering spreads at nearly a 90% clip over the last 5 years when they win, so I’ll lay the short number with Golden State at Chase Center.
Under 204 (-115)
The Rockets’ biggest issue in this series is that they don’t have a clear cut go-to option on the team. In fact, despite getting a great series from Alperen Sengun so far, Houston’s offense appears to be pretty reliant on getting major contributions from Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green. Given the inconsistency of both players, it’s no surprise that Houston’s propensity to fall into prolonged shooting droughts continued into this series, as the Rockets shot below 40 percent from the field and finished just 6-29 (20.7%) from beyond the arc in Game 1.
Despite the fact that Houston bounced back from its shooting woes in a major way in Game 2, with both teams combining for 32 made threes, and the game still went under the closing total. There’s no reason not to expect more of the same here, and I’m a bit surprised that we haven’t seen a bit more of an adjustment in the market on this number. I’d expect the Rockets to regress a bit on offense, especially away from home in a tough environment, while the Warriors should get a friendlier whistle and amp up their defensive intensity a bit at home. Including this series, 6 of the 7 games between these teams saw at least one team finish under 100 points this season, which should carry over into Saturday’s contest. I’m expecting a hard fought contest, and that coincides nicely with the under.
Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 made threes (-122)
I was low on VanVleet’s prospects for success coming into this series, and he’s actually played worse than even I was expecting to this point. Part of his struggles are due to the fact that this a brutal matchup for the veteran guard, who was already coming off the worst season of his career by any efficiency metric, and his worst scoring season in the last 7 years. This is the second-worst 3-point shooting season of VanVleet’s career, and those issues have carried over into the first 2 games of this series. He’s getting a ton of shots up, but is shooting an abysmal 3-of-20 (15%) from deep in this series. That just won’t get the job done against an excellent Warriors defense, and it’s fair to suggest that these struggles will continue for VanVleet, even if he ends up playing heavy minutes in Saturday’s contest.
