The 2022 college football bowl season continues on Wednesday with the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, which pits the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers against the South Alabama Jaguars. The Jaguars are 10-2 this season, which is the best regular season record they have had in their short history as a program. In fact, South Alabama was just a few bounces away from an undefeated season, considering it lost by just 1 point at UCLA and by 4 points against Sun Belt Champion Troy. On the other hand, the Hilltoppers finished 8-5 overall but left a bit to be desired when they stepped up in class this season – as their combined record against bowl-eligible opponents was a lowly 2-5.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to made for Wednesday’s R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl point-spread prediction: South Alabama -4.5
The Hilltoppers run an extremely pass-heavy offense, so the primary focus of the South Alabama defense will be trying to stop the Western Kentucky attack through the air. This should not be a problem for the Jaguars, as they rank 15th in opposing EPA per pass per College Football Data, 28th in PFF’s pass rush grade, and 40th in PFF’s pass coverage grade. Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed entered the transfer portal after the regular season, but he seemingly changed his mind and will return to the program and start in this bowl game. While that will be a huge lift for the Western Kentucky offense, the Hilltoppers will be without a pair of their starting offensive linemen in Gunner Britton and Rusty Staats – both of whom are transferring this offseason.
Due to the losses of Britton and Staats, Western Kentucky will have a pair of inexperienced underclassmen filling in for them. Britton was the team’s best lineman, ranking in the top 45 out of all offensive linemen in the nation per PFF, while Staats ranks in the top 25 out of all centers. Per Football Outsiders, the Jaguars’ defensive line ranks 25th in average line yards and 66th in sack rate, so the protection in front of Reed will certainly be in question. When under pressure, Reed completes just 48.8% of his passes with a very small 2.2% big time throw percentage along with a 5.6% turnover-worthy play percentage, so being without his best starting offensive linemen may cause this offense to stall at certain points.
After South Alabama’s best regular season in program history, it’s hard to believe that the Jaguars won’t be highly motivated to cap off the year with their first bowl win in program history. With no significant opt-outs to report at this point, it seems like the Jaguars will be at full strength in New Orleans on Wednesday. It’s hard not to back the favorite in this spot, especially at a better number than the opening line.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl over/under prediction: Under 56.0
As mentioned in our spread pick, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers deploy an offense that is built around throwing the football. They throw the football early and often, and they accompany it with a fast pace of play – as the Hilltoppers rank 18th in seconds per play and 23rd in plays per game. South Alabama does not nearly play as fast as its opponents here, so it will be interesting to see how this game is played from a tempo perspective. However, South Alabama should try to control the clock with its ground game throughout the contest. The Jaguars have a much more balanced offense than Western Kentucky, as the Hilltoppers rank 86th in opponent EPA per rush per College Football Data.
Defensively, South Alabama is built to stop this Western Kentucky passing offense. The Jaguars sit at 14th in defensive success rate against the pass and 15th in opposing EPA per pass, while ranking inside of the top 40 in both pass rush and pass coverage per PFF. Considering South Alabama’s success against the pass, as well as the Jaguars ability to prolong drives with a solid ground game, this total seems a bit too high. Look for the Jaguars to control the clock and limit the Hilltoppers in the passing game, so an under is the only look here.
Check out our full Western Kentucky vs South Alabama predictions
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