The 2022 college football bowl season continues on Monday with the Quick Lane Bowl, which pits the New Mexico State Aggies against the Bowling Green Falcons. New Mexico State hasn’t made a bowl game since 2017, so this season has been a nice surprise for the Aztecs. The same can be said for the Bowling Green Falcons, who are in a bowl game just one season removed from an awful 2021 campaign.
This should be a fascinating contest so let’s take a look at the best bets to make for Monday’s Quick Lane Bowl.
Quick Lane Bowl point-spread prediction: New Mexico State +4
Both teams are at 6-6, but their paths to that record have been quite different. Bowling Green’s only victory in their last 3 contests came against Toledo, who had nothing to play for after already securing a spot in the MAC Championship game. They were defeated in their other 2 games by a combined 58 points and ended the season on a run of scoring 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7. New Mexico State finished the season with a 6-2 run after opening the year with 4 losses. Although playing against lower competition, the Aggies amassed 49+ points in 3 of their last 4 contests and at least have confidence heading into this one.
As bad as NMSU has been at stopping the run this season, the Aggies rank 14th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game at 184.8. That bodes well for them for this matchup in particular as the Falcons’ have shown the ability to throw this year rather than run. The Aggies have also posted a solid 24.3 points allowed per contest this campaign, which helped propel them to a robust 5-1 record ATS to end their regular season. BGSU, on the other hand, has covered just once in the last 4 outings. This feels like a game that could come down to the wire, so taking the start with New Mexico State seems like the smart play.
Quick Lane Bowl game totals prediction: Over 47.5
Even though the Aggies have been stout defending the pass, their run defense leaves much more to be desired. Ranking 80th in the nation, Bowling Green doesn’t necessarily have to be dominant through the air because there should be plenty of holes opened up in the ground game. They didn’t show enough consistency, but this is still a Falcons offense that put up at least 31 points in 5 separate showings this season. However, the same can’t be said for their defense.
Bowling Green ranks outside the top 100 FBS teams in both passing yards allowed per game and points allowed. They’ve even given up 35+ points in 3 consecutive outings. The Aggies have had some abysmal showings as an offense this year, but they’ve got hot at the right time and should be able to capitalize against an atrocious Falcons defense. In games away from home this season, the over boasts an impressive 5-0-1 record for Bowling Green contests. Also hitting in 4 straight now for New Mexico State, those trends should continue.
Be sure to check out our full New Mexico State vs Bowling Green predictions
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