Ricky Dimon
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It all comes down to this: the 2 best teams in college basketball pretty much this entire season will battle for the NCAA Tournament National Championship on Monday night in Glendale, Arizona as March Madness concludes. The UConn Huskies are significant favorites – as they have been in every game throughout the NCAA Tournament – but perhaps no team is equipped to compete with them as well as the Purdue Boilermakers. Here is my Purdue vs UConn Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 9:20 pm ET on TBS.
UConn -9.5 alternate spread (+146)
Under 145.5 (-105)
Fletcher Loyer Over 9.5 points (-122)
Same Game Parlay odds: +937
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the entire plan here, as Purdue guard Fletcher Loyer scoring a fair amount of points obviously goes against a big win for UConn and an under play. But there is no reason why the other legs can’t cash even if Loyer reaches double figures. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
UConn Huskies -9.5 alternate spread over Purdue Boilermakers (+146)
Admittedly, I wasn’t entirely on the UConn bandwagon heading into the NCAA Tournament – mainly just to be contrarian. I have seen more than enough, however. This team is an absolute juggernaut. Head coach Dan Hurley’s squad defeated Stetson by 39 points, Northwestern by 17, San Diego State by 30, Illinois by 25 and Alabama by 14. The Huskies led by at least 30 points in every game except against ‘Bama in the Final Four.
Purdue may be the most dangerous opponent of all, but this seems like a good matchup for UConn. Even though Zach Edey’s supporting cast is solid, everything runs through him and I can’t see him having a typical Zach Edey kind of game when he is being opposed by 7′2″ Donovan Clingan of the Huskies. Clingan is a force on both ends of the floor, especially in the defensive department. If he can contain Edey even a little bit, the Boilermakers will be in trouble. The Huskies have completely dominated opponents – just as they did en route to the title last year – and I expect them to do more of the same on Monday night.
Read our full Purdue Boilermakers vs UConn Huskies National Championship predictions
Under 145.5 (-105)
Although I expect a double-digit win for the Huskies, it probably won’t be a result of an offensive barrage. Purdue has allowed 50, 67, 68, 66 and 50 points so far in the Big Dance. Head coach Matt Painter’s crew has not surrendered more than 70 in regulation since March 5 (a 77-71 win over Illinois). The bad news for the Boilermakers is that they are unlikely to generate a ton of offense if Edey doesn’t go crazy. Clingan is an amazing defender, averaging 2.5 blocks per game in 2023-24 and 3.6 during the NCAA Tournament. Purdue has only 4 players who are averaging more than 6.7 points per game. I think it’s going to be a long night at the office for the underdogs.
See our college basketball expert’s Purdue vs UConn National Championship best bet
Fletcher Loyer Over 9.5 points (-122)
With Clingan manning the middle, the Boilermakers may have to take to the perimeter on Monday. That’s what UConn’s recent opponents have done. Both Illinois and Alabama forked up 23 three-point attempts and before that San Diego State shot 22 triples. It’s worth noting that ‘Bama drained 11 of its three-pointers while remaining somewhat competitive for much of that semifinal game. If Purdue is forced to work from the outside, Loyer will have to come up big. The sophomore guard has scored in double-figures in 4 consecutive contests, including 15 points in the second round against Utah State and 14 in the Elite Eight against Tennessee. He sank a trio of three-pointers during Saturday’s rout of NC State. Look for Loyer to be heavily involved throughout the title tilt and to reach double-figures yet again.
