Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It is Day 3 of March Madness, and the first two days had no shortage of excitement. The biggest upsets so far have shaken the country and ruined anyone from having a perfect bracket: Furman, Princeton, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Florida Atlantic have us all questioning which upset could be next. So far, I’m 1-0 in my NCAAM player props and I’m targeting lines that are +EV in terms of value. Let’s look at my favorite player props for Day 3 of the tournament.
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Marcus Carr (Texas) over 14.5 points (-125)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Carr is a 5th year Senior for the Longhorns and averaging 15.9 PPG on the season, with 17 PPG over the L2. He’s hit this line in 51% of games and has not dipped below 34 min in a game since the start of the conference tournaments. For me, this is a volume play combined with Penn State’s poor defense. The Nittany Lions ranked #105 in Opp Effective FG% and #245 in Opp FGA/Game. Volume is where Carr thrives when he gets 12+ FGA in a game, as he hit this line in 13/18 (72%) on the season. In addition to his volume, he’s shooting 36% from deep this season and 41% since the start of the conference tournament. You can play this up to 15.5 and for 1U
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Jaime Jaquez Jr (UCLA) under 9.5 rebounds (-135)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing
Jaquez Jr. is averaging 8.1 rebounds per game and has only hit this line in 13/35 games this season (37%). The Bruins are playing Northwestern today in an interesting matchup. While Northwestern is poor on the rebounding front (#282 in Opp RPG), but they are also very good at slowing the game down. The Wildcats are 15th overall in Opp PPG and 30th in Opp FGA per game; I’m expecting a lot less opportunities for Jaquez than the books are projecting with this line. Even accounting for his minutes boost, I have Jaquez pegged at 8.4 rebounds today and he’ll need 2 more than that to clear this line. This game is the lowest total of the day at 125.5, so the under is my move. 1U and I would not move off the 9.5 line.
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