It’s hard to believe that we are already in the first round of the playoffs in the 2022 PLL season. So many great performances and storylines have come out this year, and the best is yet to come. We have had a ton of success in our best bets this year, turning a profit in over 60% of the weeks of game action. Now that we’re in the playoffs, it’s officially go time. The teams are gearing up to go on a run-in and so are we. Here are my three favorite bets for the first round of the 2022 playoffs.
Archers/Redwoods 1st half over 12.5 (-115)
Yes, you read that right. For the first time all season, we have first-half game props offered on DraftKings Sportsbook. Generally, when you see sportsbooks post lines like this for the first time they are not as sharp, so why not try to take advantage of it while we still can? Here’s why I like this play. Teams tend to score more goals in the first half than they do in the second half. With halftime adjustments, fatigue and familiarity with your opponent – it’s easy to understand why that happens. In terms of the matchup between these teams, you have the Archers’ highflying offense that is built to erupt at a moment’s notice. The Redwoods, however, haven’t been too shabby themselves recently. They are averaging 13.8 goals per game since the All-Star break and have really found their footing. On the other hand, their defense has kept their early pace up all year long. They are averaging 13.2 goals allowed in that same time period. The Archers offense has been the most efficient in the league, scoring on 33.2% of their possessions.
Both of these teams will be itching to win this game after early playoff exits in 2021. The Archers should be attacking early and often, and the best chance the Redwoods will have in this game is to try to keep pace with them. Both of these offenses have shown the ability to put up goals in bunches and I think that is exactly what we are going to get. The reason I’m more comfortable with taking the first half over as opposed to the full game over is because I think the scoring will die down in the second half as this is a playoff game. If your book doesn’t offer first-half bets, I am also confident in the full game over. However, I am more confident in taking the first half, which is why it is one of my best bets.
Waterdogs/Atlas under 25.5 (-130)
You’re probably going to need some TUMS in your system before placing submit on this bet, but I like the under in this matchup. The last time these teams met, it was a 31-goal slugfest with the Waterdogs coming out on top in overtime. Could we see the same scoring output from both teams in this one? I tend to think not. The Atlas defense put forward one of their worst performances all year when these teams last met, and the Atlas led a miraculous rally to force the game to overtime. I believe that unit will absolutely make some adjustments and come to play in a do-or-die situation. Aside from faceoff, these teams are evenly matched at all levels of the field and both defenses are capable of slowing down the opposing offense.
The one true advantage in this game comes at the faceoff stripe, with Trevor Baptiste going against Jake Withers. Baptiste has been dominant against just about everyone this year and that should not change this week. When the Atlas know they have a faceoff advantage (i.e. against the Archers) they tend to slow down the game and try to dominate the possession battle. When this happens and they are playing solid on defense, the games generally go under. With their last matchup against the Waterdogs turning into a track meet, I see them deploying the strategy they use against the Archers in this one. The pace of this game should go as the Atlas want it to, and I believe they will do their best to keep the Waterdogs offense at bay. With a playoff atmosphere and everything to lose, both teams should be playing tight regardless. Add that to the fact that the Atlas should do their best to keep the pace slow and I have a hard time seeing this game going over the high 25.5-goal total.
Chaos/Chrome 1st half over 11.5 (-115)
The last time these teams met, the total finished at 22 goals with the Chrome coming out on top, 13-9. That was 3 weeks ago and the teams really haven’t changed too much stylistically, but I believe that this game has the chance to have some fireworks. All of the stats point towards the under, but I’m going to throw all of those out the window. The Chrome have been playing defense at an absurd level this year led by the likely Defensive Player of the Year, JT Giles-Harris. The Chaos offense has looked flat out bad all season. That mixture points towards the under, but here is why I think the opposite is more likely. The Chrome have never made the playoffs in a full season of games (excluding the bubble year, when every team made it) and they are relatively inexperienced in that field. On the other hand, the 7th-seed Chaos went on a run to win the title last season and have the majority of their horses back poised to make another run at it.
A young Chrome team could have playoff jitters and may come out of the gates stale on defense. The Chaos, who know they have nothing to lose, should come out hot as they know what it takes to win. The only chance they have in this game is to throw the first punch and put the pressure on an inexperienced Chrome squad. In turn, the Chrome will have to match that pace and start playing fast as well. Both teams will look to push in transition to generate good looks against the opposing defenses, which bodes well for the over. The line of 11.5 goals in the first half is a relatively low number and should be cleared relatively easily. Again, the full game is tougher as both teams will likely settle in by the second half, which is why we take the first half over.
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