After two weeks, there’s a little more clarity in the Premier Lacrosse League. Teams have shown more of themselves, their identity, and their tendencies. When that happens, it becomes a little bit easier to identify the key players for those teams and the ways in which they’ll contribute, either more than we expected in the preseason or less.
Mac O’Keefe (Chaos) over 2.5 points (+100)
O’Keefe has been a popular pick for props so far this year. As arguably the best left handed shooter in the league, and one of the critical pieces on a Chaos offense missing many of its offensive stars, it’s easy to see why. His numbers to this point have backed up his reputation. He’s shooting 30%, and hitting the net on 70% of his shots. He’s averaging three points a game entering this weekend, and the defenses he’s played against so far this year have both been better than this week’s opponent, the Redwoods.
O’Keefe is currently 12th in the league in expected shooting. When he’s assisted, he’s shooting 42.9%. Chaos have 3 goals on 8 shots through two weeks of shooting from the low lefty wing, right in the O’Keefe wheelhouse. The righty wing for the Chaos has still just generated only 1 goal on six shots. Even with Challen Rogers returning on the righty side for Chaos, the lefty side should be leaned on this week.
The Redwoods defend two man game offensive initiations, a favorite of the Chaos, very poorly through two weeks. They’ve surrendered five goals on 12 shots from two man game initiations. That means teams are shooting north of 40% against the Redwoods out of two man game sets. A misplayed pick or a lapse in communication on the left side means O’Keefe will be getting a shot off, and that’s dangerous every time it happens.
Moreover, the Woods have been getting poor goalie play. Tim Troutner has just 8 saves all season, with a save percentage of 31%. His backup, Jack Kelly, who may get a starting nod soon, has just 3 saves in relief action, and a lowly 23% save percentage. O’Keefe’s shooting form is deceptive, hiding the stick head well and making it difficult for the goalie to pick up the ball out of the stick and track it. Since he shoots upwards of 100mph, the ball is in the back of the net before the goalie has a chance to even see it.
O’Keefe is currently the top scorer for the Chaos, has taken more shots than anyone on the team, and is one of only five offensive regulars on the team with a goal right now. Chaos should continue to lean on their sharpshooting lefty for points, and opportunities for points should be bountiful against the Redwoods.
Matt Moore (Archers) over 2.5 points (+120)
Matt Moore had his breakout game last week, as the rookie put up a hat trick and an assist on 5 shots against the Cannons with only 2 turnovers. The Archers have been looking for some firepower as they were without superstar Grant Ament, who this week appears to be ready to return from a hamstring injury. They’ve also endured a somewhat slow start, by his standards, from Captain America, Tom Schreiber. Along with those two, Connor Fields is still wrapping up the indoor season and won’t return until next week at the earliest. It’s been a team effort to pick up the slack, led by usual suspects Will Manny and Marcus Holman. However, right there with them is Moore.
Moore’s performance against the Chaos’ elite defense and goalie Blaze Riordenwas quite impressive. The Archers shredded the Chaos defense to the tune of 17 goals. Moore saw short stick matchups at many times during the game, and routinely won them. Of his 5 goals, three were unassisted, which makes him the league leader in unassisted goals thus far. This week, he goes up against the Cannons. It’s possible that the Cannons decide not to guard him with a short stick, it’s even reasonable given the performance from a week ago. However, Manny, Holman, and Schreiber are must pole players. With Ament likely back, that means all four of the poles from the Cannons are spoken for, and Moore likely sees short stick matchups again, particularly if he runs out of the box this week.
With all that adjustment, why still stick with Moore to hit this over? At UVA, he was a do it all player who was malleable enough to change his game from week to week, becoming whatever type of player would hurt the opposition the most. It’s what made him such an elite PLL prospect. Moore is now 8th in the league in Expected Shooting. He has four assist opportunities, but only one was converted into an assist for him. The Archers are the best in the league at initiating from the righty wing, where Matt Moore is most comfortable. They have 5 goals on 14 shots this season.
This is a bit of a “something’s gotta give” situation, because the Cannons have yet to surrender a goal on a righty wing initiation. Moore, as noted, is malleable. If the Cannons do a good job denying shooting opportunities on the righty wing, he can become a feeder, he can move to the left side, or he can attack his matchup from up top.
The Archers offensive possessions end in a goal 35.7% of the time, second best in the league. Cannons defensive possessions end in a save nearly 30% of the time. This is a defense that is happy to allow the goalie, Nick Marrocco, to see plenty of shots and make saves. Against the Archers, that’s playing with fire. The Archers are second in the league in assisted goals, lead the league in unassisted goals, and have the second best shooting percentage in the league. Their club name could not be more apt. Moore finds himself with enough opportunities to this over.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Archers vs Cannons
Myles Jones (Redwoods) under 2.5 points (+130)
The Redwoods are floundering right now. They managed just three goals in last week’s loss to Chrome. That along with their 11 goals in a week one loss gives the Woods just 14 goals scored this year to 29 allowed, a league worst in both categories leading to the league worst goal -15 differential. They lead the league in turnovers, they have the worst shooting percentage in the league, and have just eight assists in two games. Through two weeks, a Redwoods possession ends in a turnover 60.3% of the time. The second-worst team in the league is 47.2%. The Redwoods are playing like a collection of offensive weapons taking turns playing one vs everybody.
In terms of production, Myles Jones hasn’t been awful. He’s got five points in those two games on two goals and three assists. Those three assists are on eight assist opportunities, which is a decent rate. But he’s shooting just 22% right now and also has committed four turnovers. Last year, Jones was a man possessed, scoring 32 points, the second best total in the league, to just 13 turnovers. It looked like he’d ascended to the level of the unstoppable. This year, he just hasn’t been that.
This week, Jones and the Redwoods take on the Chaos. The Chaos defense has allowed just 3 goals on 15 shots allowed from the middle of the field, and three goals on 17 shots from the high righty wing. Where does Jones do his damage? Those two spots. A look at his shot chart from a year ago shows nine of his 14 goals coming from the high righty wing. Compounding that is the fact that he’s shooting at Blaze Riorden.
What makes Riorden such an effective goalie for Chaos is that his positioning is just about perfect. He cuts angles and fills the net better than any goalie in the world. Shots from alley dodges, where the shooter’s angle on the net decreases with every step he takes, are just what Riorden wants to see.
Physically, the Chaos have a hard time matching up with Jones. Just like everyone else. Jones just hasn’t been able to leverage that at all this season. The Chaos SSDMs are good, though not as big and physical as other SSDMs Jones has faced this year, but it might not even matter that he’ll have a size advantage. With it looking like Sergio Perkovic will be out again, Myles will be lucky to get more than a few feet from a Chaos long stick.
The Redwoods have a ton of talent – too much for them to be this bad all season. But getting the goals flowing against Riorden and company looks unlikely.
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