There were 3 blowout games in the PLL playoffs last week featuring some huge individual performances. This week, there are once again no shortage of props available across multiple books. The Waterdogs and Whipsnakes could produce a third close game of the season. The Waterdogs both lit up the scoreboard last week, scoring 19 goals against Atlas, and handed the Whipsnakes their only loss of the season this year in Week 5. Because it’s shaping up as the game in which the winner will be the title favorite, that’s where the focus is for this week’s player props.
Michael Sowers (Waterdogs) over 3.5 points (+105)
Michael Sowers is a hot hand to play. In the blowout against Atlas, Sowers put up 5 points on 3 goals and 2 assists, shooting 50% and hitting the net with all but one of his shots. The Waterdogs will be trying to keep that energy from the quarters and carry it into the semifinal matchup. They’ll need to race out of the gates against the Whipsnakes, who had a bye last week and could potentially have some rust. This season, in the first game against the Whipsnakes, Sowers had 5 points. He had a hat-trick in the second matchup. Including the playoffs, Sowers has had 4 or more points in 6 games this year. The Waterdogs have also been more creative in his deployment later in the year. At times, Sowers lines up as an attackman. He also can run out of the box if needed, causing matchup issues since there aren’t many short sticks who can stay with him. As a feeder, Sowers has been excellent. Even with some missed time due to injury, Sowers has 44 assist opportunities, ranking 8th in the league. He’s also 4th in the league in unassisted goals scored, and he shoots 60% on his assisted shot opportunities. These stats paint a picture of a player who can do absolutely everything on the offensive end. Expect Sowers to be a key part of the game plan. He’ll be running off picks if he’s at attack, isolating short sticks in inverts if he runs out of the box, and applying pressure to the Whipsnakes from the opening whistle.
Read our PLL predictions for Sunday’s semifinals
Ryan Conrad (Waterdogs) over 2.5 points (+155)
2022 has looked like a make it or break it year for Ryan Conrad. After being the 2nd overall pick in the 2019 draft, Conrad played in just 5 games for the Atlas before being left unprotected and being grabbed by the Waterdogs in expansion. He didn’t play in the bubble season, and then appeared in 9 games last year but with limited productivity. But the Conrad of the quarterfinals looked like a guy who had put it all together. He was everywhere on the field with 5 points on 2 goals, a 2-pointer and an assist, while shooting 75% and picking up 2 ground balls. This was the player that the league expected when he went 2nd overall. Over his last 4 games, including the playoffs, Conrad has 14 points on 8 goals and 6 assists. He has emerged as a top-line threat for the Waterdogs offense. He had 2 goals on just 3 shots in the Waterdogs’ first matchup against the Whipsnakes. Conrad has taken 6 shots against against Whips goalie Kyle Bernlohr this season and 4 have gone in. However, Conrad will likely enter the game lower on the scouting report than linemates Zach Currier and Connor Kelly, who will contend with Michael Ehrhardt and Tyler Warner. If Conrad gets the 6th defender as his matchup, he’ll have opportunities to trigger the offense. With his role having expanded since that first game, Conrad should be in line for plenty of opportunities to have an impact, either scoring or as a feeder.
Jay Carlson (Whipsnakes) over 2.5 points (+125)
In the first meeting with the Waterdogs, Jay Carlson exploded for 6 points, 5 of which were goals. Carlson was unavailable for the second meeting between the teams, but he should once again be an impact player for the Whips. Last year, Carlson was a playoff maestro. He had a hat-trick against the Waterdogs in a semifinal win, and then another in the title-game loss to the Chaos. He has gained a reputation as a “garbage man”, meaning he cleans up loose ball opportunities and turns them into goals. The Whipsnakes have a 37.1% rebound rate, the best in the league. The Waterdogs’ defense has a 69.9% rebound rate, the 3rd-worst in the league. Carlson is one of the smartest players in the league, and has been a thorn in the side of defenses for years. He doesn’t dodge much, if at all. If the ball is in his stick, it’s often because he’s on the receiving end of a feed inside. A momentary lapse in focus is all he needs. The Waterdogs have been prone to having lapses or down stretches, giving up runs to opposing teams. In the quarters, they gave up a 5-goal run to the Atlas, although the game was in hand. Against Atlas in Week 9 they gave up a 4-goal run. Against the Cannons in Week 8, it was 5 goals. Against Chrome in Week 7, it was 4. If the Waterdogs have one of their defensive lapses that allows a Whipsnakes run this weekend, expect Carlson to be at the center of it.
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